Climate-related scenarios

Part of the McGuinness Institute’s ClimateChangeNZ and ScenariosNZ projects

[This page is a work in progress as at 20231030]

This page is designed to support the ClimateChangeNZ and ScenariosNZ research projects through research into climate-related scenarios.

Latest publication

The Institute’s most recent publication that explores this area is Discussion Paper 2023/02: Establishing national climate-related reference scenarios, which aims to contribute to an evidence base that the Institute will use to develop core assumptions that will influence and develop the narrative underpinning future research in this area. We will continue to develop this work with the aim of contributing to the conversation on climate-related reference scenarios.

Climate-related scenarios are scenarios that aim to allow organisations to better understand and prepare for the uncertain future impacts of climate change. See the Institute’s glossary for definitions of climate-related scenarios and scenarios. Please note that these terms are still evolving in international literature, but these are the definitions that the Institute has developed for the purposes of this discussion paper.

List of climate-related scenarios

To view a list of climate-related scenarios identified by the Institute, refer to Table 2 found on the ScenariosNZ page. The table can be searched for ‘climate change’ to show only the scenarios that are climate-related. Please be aware that the Institute will continue to update this table. As a result, the tables found within Working Paper 2023/01: List of publicly available national and local scenarios may not accurately reflect the tables found on the ScenariosNZ webpage.

Discussion Paper 2023/02 – Establishing national climate-related reference scenarios