Foresight tools
Part of the McGuinness Institute’s ForesightNZ project
Invitation to comment by 31 March 2025
We are currently developing a set of foresight tools cards, which showcase a number of well-known foresight tools. The aim is to enable practitioners to reduce the complexity and by doing so, provide more clarity over what the future may hold. Just like a gold digger who continues to try to find a vein of gold, practitioners continue to work away at a problem, using a range of mechanisms to seek out more data, information or knowledge (e.g. conversations, interviews, books or papers). The tools are most effective when used in a group.
The tools will allow foresight practitioners to consider combining or undertaking a sequential series of tools to explore a particular issue or problem. The Institute hopes this initiative contributes to a more transparent assessment, not just of the potential future outcomes but of the foresight tools themselves.
The criteria that has shaped the selection of these tools are as follows:
- simple to understand and use in a workshop situation
- flexible to apply to a range of problems or issues
- have a visual element that conveys the concept
- frequently applied by practitioners around the world
Our aim is to complete this work in April 2025. The Institute would welcome feedback on the foresight tools cards ideally before 31 March 2025. Please email all suggestions to enquiries@mcguinnessinstitute.org
As we progress this work, we will provide additional PDFs.
29 November 2024
Download full set of Foresight Tools cards (PDF, 250 KB)
Foresight tools resources
| Name | Author | Relevant tool | Tool used for | Topics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey Insights: An analysis of the 2021 Long-term Insights Briefings Survey (2021) | McGuinness Institute | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | LTIBs | |
| Strategic Risk and Crisis Management: A handbook for modelling and managing complex risks | David Rubens | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
| Building Strategic Foresight and Anticipatory Capacity and Knowledge in Government | OECD Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI) | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
| Foresight Manual: Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda | Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE) | Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development | ||
| 40 Years of Shell Scenarios | Royal Dutch Shell | Scenarios by the Numbers | Scenario | |
| Causal Layered Analysis A Four-Level Approach to Alternative Futures | Sohail Inayatullah | Futures Triangle | Mapping | |
| The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | Nicholas Taleb | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | Black Swan |
| StrategyNZ: Understanding paradox through strategic foresight | Peter Bishop | STEEP+C | Mapping | |
| The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore | Michele Wucker | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | Gray Rhino |
| Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming | Sohail Inayatullah | Futures Triangle | Mapping | |
| New Zealand's National Risks | Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) | Scanning | ||
| Our first Long-Term Insights Briefings | Andrew Jackson | LTIBs | ||
| The Futures Wheel | Jerome C. Glenn | Futures Wheel | Mapping | |
| Benefits of Scenario Planning Applied to Energy Development | Barry Benedict | |||
| There are known unknowns [see PDF here] | Donald Rumsfeld | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | |
| The Inquisitive Man [see PDF here] | Ivan Krylov | Animal Metaphors | Mapping | Black Elephant |