As we face an uncertain world, developing an uncertainty mindset can make all the difference.
The difference between an uncertainty mindset and a risk mindset comes from our work researching risk and uncertainty, Discussion Paper 2025/02 – How to Tell the Difference Between an Emergency and a Crisis and Why it Matters. In this paper we explored Frank H. Knight’s 1921 book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. This book is best known for Knight’s distinction between risk (quantifiable and therefore insurable), and uncertainty (unmeasurable and therefore creates opportunities for profit). In this way, Knight suggests that profit is a return that is gained for navigating uncertainty:
The practical difference between the two categories, risk and uncertainty, is that in the former the distribution of the outcome in a group of instances is known … while in the case of uncertainty this is not true, the reason being in general that it is impossible to form a group of instances, because the situation dealt with is in a high degree unique.[1]
Uncertainty is not necessarily a bad thing, and if you have the right mindset you can thrive in an uncertain environment. At the Institute, we believe the overall aim of an ‘uncertainty mindset’, in contrast to the ‘risk mindset’, is to create more certainty by removing ambiguity, seeking intelligence, being deliberate and acting at pace.
Below are our eight suggested tools for navigating a world that is uncertain:
Tool 1: Enjoy the journey
Unlike a risk mindset, an uncertainty mindset should allow space to be open to positive impacts and opportunities that might arise. It is a more creative, observant, explorative and relationship-based way of operating. It can be both fun and rewarding, as you can move quickly in response to the world around you. Failing fast (and failing cheaply) is part of this mindset, but so is succeeding fast (e.g testing, trialling and scaling).
Tool 2: Build trusted relationships
The aim of an uncertainty mindset is to continue to deliver what you have promised to people, organisations and countries. Importantly, if situations change, be honest and let people know about issues well in advance. Secrets and half-truths amplify uncertainty and can do a great deal of unintentional damage further along the line.
Tool 3: Misalignment amplifies uncertainty
When your goals, actions and assumptions do not line up, uncertainty explodes. This is true of people, organisations and countries. If there is no alignment, even if the relationships were created with the best of intentions, this may result in stress and add further uncertainty. Alignment towards the same goals ensures everyone can be on a shared journey.
Tool 4: Collect intelligence
Shared learnings will improve decision making in uncertain times. You will not get all the information you need, and you will not get it in the time frames you want. However, you can seek out, and try and make sense of the world based on insufficient or inadequate information. Observation, inviting diverse views and regular reporting (even if not accurate or complete), may be all that is available. However, in uncertain times you need to put systems in place to actively seek out data and gather information, and by doing so gain knowledge.
Tool 5: Be curious, think long and use scenarios
Scenarios are a great way to explore the interconnections and consequences of a range of events without having to deal with the impacts. Hence, scenarios help us prepare, optimise and often shape the future. That old proverb, ‘a stitch in time saves nine’, reminds us that fixing a small problem early prevents it from becoming a bigger problem later on. Futurists call this forward engagement, engaging early to shape outcomes.
Tool 6: Use shared terminology
This works wonders to reduce ambiguity and improve communication. Check in frequently to ensure people are on the same page as you. Seek out clarification and listen hard for any discrepancies. Terminology should be simple. Remove ambiguity from reports, strategy documents, guidelines and legislation. Align key documents that guide how to respond when bad or good events happen.
Tool 7: Fine tune your moral compass
Have a clear understanding of what your moral compass is and what your non-negotiables are. You need to know what you find acceptable and what you do not. Uncertain times will mean you are faced with issues at pace. Being able to say no fast will mean you do not compromise ethics that are important for you, your brand or your country.
Tool 8: Do not be afraid of change
The world is constantly changing, and it is easy to observe that those who are dogmatic get left in the past. Uncertainty is an opportunity to embrace new technologies, ideas and people. Being open to diverse perspectives is always critical, and even more so in uncertain times. New information may become available, and having the courage to seek this out and the openness to change your opinion is a sign of strength.
Designing a mosaic to bring the tools together
The reason for writing this list of tools was in response to colleagues and friends asking me how I talk to young people about the level of uncertainty that exists in the world. To explain my thinking, I was looking for a design idea to illustrate how the tools for an uncertainty mindset are interconnected yet independent. The design had to illustrate the tools are non-hierarchical and demonstrate how each of the tools can still work when they operate in different combinations and orders.
Sometimes things simply rhyme. During my travels over summer 2025, I was yet again reviewing this list of tools and trying to imagine a visual to explain the connection between them. The next day, I was walking through Herculaneum and found the perfect design inspiration – a mosaic designed in 79AD that was literally beneath my feet at the right time.
Anna, a young archaeologist from Askos Tours, guided our small group through the ruins of Herculaneum, a remarkably preserved ancient town just south of Naples. She explained that its exceptional state of preservation was due to the thick layers of mud that engulfed it during the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. Today, archaeologists estimate that more than 70% of Herculaneum remains buried beneath modern buildings.
Among the ruins, we stepped into a room that formed part of a roman bath house, adorned with an exquisite mosaic floor. This space was once part of a women’s steam room, where the intricate design served not just as decoration but as a spark for conversation.
Each motif, while connected in a geometric layout, retained its own distinct identity. The mosaic featured icons of a cooking ladle, leaf, ceramic pot, bird, water jug, square, phallic symbol, and many other elements. As women relaxed in the steam, they could draw inspiration from the artistry beneath their feet. These ancient bath houses not only served hygienic purposes but were also social hubs for relaxation and connection at the time.
This got me thinking about what icons that Josie had suggested to match the tools in this blog and to ask our designer Lucy to make up a mosaic illustrating an uncertainty mindset. Below is the result:
I hope these eight tools prove useful for young – and old – facing an uncertain world. This list of tools is constantly evolving so please do not hesitate to let me know if you have any thoughts.
Endnotes
[1] Knight, F.H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. 1st ed. Boston, New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, p.233