Research Projects

Global Conflict NZ

Nuclear war was explored and discussed by both the Commission for the Future (1982) and the New Zealand Planning Council (1978–1993). The nuclear issue, raised by the Commission for the Future, was often believed to have led to the disestablishment of the Commission (see the video Lessons from the Commission for the Future with Hon Hugh Templeton, 2010).

Resources

A PDF of New Zealand after Nuclear War (1987). See Table 1.
PDFs of the 19 background papers published to support New Zealand after Nuclear War (1987). See Table 1.
Press coverage of New Zealand after Nuclear War (1986–1988). See Table 2.
PDFs of the 77 endnote references in Discussion Paper 2022/03. See Table 3.

Latest publication

Discussion Paper 2022/03 – Nuclear War: Are we prepared?

Download (PDF, 9 MB)

We are fortunate that Wren Green agreed to revisit his earlier report, New Zealand after Nuclear War (August 1987), co-authored with Tony Cairns and Judith Wright. This resulted in Discussion Paper 2022/03 – Nuclear War: Are we prepared?

Wren Green led a 1986 government-funded investigation into the consequences for New Zealand of nuclear war. He was lead author of a 1984 report by the NZ Ecological Society on the environmental consequences of nuclear war for New Zealand and participated in international meetings about nuclear winter impacts. After this project investigation he was a senior manager in the Department of Conservation. He subsequently worked as a consultant across science, conservation, biosecurity and international development areas and held a range of positions in scientific and non-governmental organisations. Wren has an honours degree from Victoria University in 1967 and a PhD in ecology from the University of British Columbia as a Commonwealth Scholar.

Table 1: Nuclear war publications

Order	Date	Title	Author(s)
1.	August 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War	Green, W., Cairns, T. and Wright, J.
2.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 1a The likelihood of nuclear war; 1b Study assumptions	The study team
3.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 2 Impacts on New Zealand's climate and growing season	Mullan, A. and Salinger, M.
4.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 3 Impacts on New Zealand's natural environment	Brockie, B.
5.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 4 Meeting New Zealand's food needs	Hunt, D.
6.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 5 Effects of electromagnetic pulse on power and communications	Coates, G.
7.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 6 Impacts on energy systems in New Zealand	Fitzsimons, J.
8.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 7 Impacts on communications systems in New Zealand	Wright, J., Tiffin, J. and Whale, H.
9.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 8 Disruptions to transport systems in New Zealand	Wright, J.
10.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 9 Radiation effects on the environment and people	Roberts, P.
11.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 10 Impacts on health and the health care system in New Zealand	Kitchin, P.
12.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 11 Human responses to disaster – a review	Britton, N.
13.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 12 The impact on New Zealand society	Wylie, C.
14.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 13 Impacts on New Zealand's urban systems	Haigh, D.
15.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 14 Government agencies for control and recovery in New Zealand	Mitchell, J.
16.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 15 Policy options and planning approaches for the NZ government	A working party
17.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 16 Initial impacts on New Zealand's financial sector	Rankin, P. and Tompkinson, P.
18.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 17 Initial disruptions to trade and employment in New Zealand	Makin, K. and Gillman, C.
19.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 18 International migration to New Zealand	Wright, J.
20.	September 1987	New Zealand After Nuclear War: The Background Papers; 19 Implications for links with South Pacific countries	Clark, K. and Small, D.
21.	April 1988	David Lange press statement – Examination of 'national emergencies'	Lange, D.

Table 2: Press coverage of New Zealand after Nuclear War (1986–1988)

This table lists nuclear war press coverage, arranged chronologically.

	Date	Title	Publication	Author(s)
1.	21 December 1986	Plans for nuclear aftermath	NZ Sunday Times	Doyle, E.
2.	21 August 1987	'Grim facts' in N-war report	Evening Post
3.	24 August 1987	Alive after	Auckland Sun	O'Sullivan, F.
4.	24 August 1987	Government planning	Auckland Star	Greenall.
5.	24 August 1987	Let's plan now for the worst	Auckland Sun
6.	24 August 1987	Main concern social – grim scenario	Evening Post
7.	24 August 1987	Nuclear survival: the NZ prospects	Dominion	Clifton, J.
8.	24 August 1987	N.Z. N-plan lacking	Press	Riddell, O.
9.	24 August 1987	The holocaust	Auckland Sun
10.	24 August 1987	NZ without nuclear-war contingency plan: Impact on nation would be 'severe'	Evening Post
11.	24 August 1987	After Nuclear War?	New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone Committee
12.	24 August 1987	Fallout 'last worry' in nuclear war	Auckland Star	Wright, L.
13.	24 August 1987	Grim prospects for survivors	Otago Daily Times
14.	24 August 1987	Irony of nuclear survival 'Biblical'	Evening Standard	Browne, A.
15.	24 August 1987	Untitled	Dominion	Clifton, J.
16.	24 August 1987	Grim Findings of Nuclear War Study Released	New Zealand Planning Council
17.	24 August 1987	Need for New Zealand Perspective on Nuclear War	New Zealand Planning Council	Rankin, P., & Green, W.
18.	24 August 1987	Nuclear War Study Reveals Lack of Planning	New Zealand Planning Council	Rankin, P., & Green, W.
19.	24 August 1987	No consolation fallout not main problem	Star
20.	24 August 1987	Nuclear Threat Must be Faced	New Zealand Planning Council	Rankin, P.
21.	24 August 1987	NZ can survive nuclear conflict, says expert	Christchurch Star	Kilroy, S.
22.	24 August 1987	NZ faces refugee flood from nuclear war	Christchurch Star	Ansley, G.
23.	24 August 1987	NZ helpless in a nuclear war	Auckland Sun	O'Sullivan, F.
24.	24 August 1987	Planning for the day after	Evening Standard
25.	24 August 1987	Post-war Order Under Scrutiny	New Zealand Herald
26.	24 August 1987	Social chaos, not death biggest N-war threat?	Waikato Times
27.	24 August 1987	Let's plan now for the worst	Auckland Sun
28.	25 August 1987	No sanctuary in a nuclear age	Evening Post
29.	25 August 1987	Facing up to the aftermath	Auckland Star
30.	25 August 1987	Full nuke survival plan some way off	Dominion	Clifton, J.
31.	25 August 1987	Forget the fallout we'll all die of flu	Auckland Star	Wright, L.
32.	25 August 1987	Gov't Formulating Plans For Nuclear Survival	Southland Times
33.	25 August 1987	Lodge laughs	Evening Post
34.	25 August 1987	More nuclear propaganda	Nelson Evening Mail
35.	25 August 1987	Nuclear contingency planning underway	Nelson Evening Mail
36.	25 August 1987	Nuclear war survival advice for NZ	Auckland Star
37.	25 August 1987	Nuke explosion would cripple economy	Dominion	Clark, L.
38.	25 August 1987	Preparing for the holocaust	National Business Review	Mayne, W.
39.	25 August 1987	Nuclear Winter goes beyond darkness	Evening Standard
40.	25 August 1987	Nuclear survival planning started by Cabinet	Waikato Times	Clifton, J.
41.	25 August 1987	The Days After	Southland Times
42.	25 August 1987	A plan for survival	Waikato Times
43.	26 August 1987	Living with the bomb	Dominion
44.	26 August 1987	Aftermath of nuclear war	Press (Christchurch)
45.	27 August 1987	NZ prepares for the apocalypse	New Scientist
46.	29 August 1987	A Framework for NZ to Plan to Meet A Nuclear Disaster	Greymouth Evening Star	Ninness, R.
47.	29 August 1987	Mushroom cloud lining	Dominion
48.	30 August 1987	Nuclear aftermath	Dominion Sunday Times
49.	30 August 1987	Vets urge post-nuke plan for animals	Dominion Sunday Times
50.	31 August 1987	Animals Forgotten In Disaster Plans	New Zealand Herald
51.	31 August 1987	Post-nuclear war survival plan urged	Evening Post
52.	31 August 1987	N-war Social Aftermath Unpredictable	New Zealand Herald
53.	1 September 1987	Nuclear war would merely disrupt New Zealand	de Volkskrant (The People's Paper)
54.	1 September 1987	A society in ruins	Nelson Evening Mail	Ninness, R.
55.	1 September 1987	After a nuclear war	New Zealand Herald
56.	1 September 1987	Nuclear stance	Press (Christchurch)	Wilkinson, V., & Ross, L.
57.	1 September 1987	NZ worries about Target Australia	Melbourne Age	Kennedy, J.
58.	4 September 1987	Life after nuclear death	Dominion	Reeves, W. P.
59.	4 September 1987	Newztel Log: Ex-radio NZ "Morning Report"	Radio New Zealand
60.	5 September 1987	After Armageddon	New Zealand Listener	Fry, A.
61.	5 September 1987	Motunui output slashed	Evening Post
62.	6 September 1987	Nuke war scenario & Nuke war aftermath	Dominion Sunday Times	Rankin, K., & Wrathall, S.
63.	6 September 1987	'Robber baron' warning in wake of war	Dominion Sunday Times
64.	9 September 1987	'Drastic effect on agriculture'	Otago Daily Times
65.	9 September 1987	Looking Beyond The Implications Of A Nuclear Winter	Southland Times
66.	12 September 1987	A question of life and death	Evening Standard
67.	13 September 1987	Mystery army map shows capital city nuclear bomb damage	Dominion Sunday Times	Stevens, R.
68.	13 September 1987	The effect of the atomic bomb when dropped on Wellington	Dominion Sunday Times
69.	17 September 1987	Listen to Radio Pacific Today	New Zealand Herald
70.	19 September 1987	Apocalypse revisited	New Zealand Listener	Preddey, G.
71.	19 September 1987	Nuke war study pulls no punches	Nelson Evening Mail
72.	30 September 1987	Post-nuclear employment	Dominion Sunday Times	Rankin, P. J.
73.	3 October 1987	Greenpeace wins $12.5m recompense from France	Evening Post	O'Hara, P.
74.	5 October 1987	'Grim and nasty' survival issues raised	Evening Post
75.	5 October 1987	Nuclear war study needing follow-up	NK
76.	5 October 1987	Nuclear survival 'surprise to many'	Waikato Times
77.	6 October 1987	Nuclear war findings 'surprise'	Otago Daily Times
78.	14 October 1987	Weeds could cure NZ ills after war	Christchurch Star
79.	15 October 1987	Weeds to solve problems	Gisborne Herald
80.	17 October 1987	Self-proclaimed Messiah predicts holocaust, flood	Evening Post	Gieseg, K.
81.	23 October 1987	'Nuclear war would hit pasture production'	Press (Christchurch)
82.	27 October 1987	Nuclear aftermath planning sought	Press (Christchurch)	Arthur, G.
83.	28 October 1987	Post-nuclear plan studied	Christchurch Star	Tunnah, H.
84.	28 October 1987	Life and death – A Matter Of Priority	Southland Times	Browne, A.
85.	28 October 1987	Nuclear aftermath topic of meeting	Christchurch Star	Matterson, H.
86.	29 October 1987	Greenpeace on N-war	Press (Christchurch)
87.	30 October 1987	'Disaster effects in parallel'	Evening Post
88.	4 November 1987	Author warns of grim aftermath	Waikato Times
89.	4 November 1987	Researcher brings nuke message	Northern Advocate
90.	12 November 1987	Oil refinery future in balance	Evening Post
91.	13 November 1987	Oil refinery 'not a bargaining chip'	NK	Burns, B.
92.	25 November 1987	Nuclear winter idea defended	Dominion	Field, M.
93.	2 December 1987	Mot[u]nui shutdown could cost $40m	Evening Post	Kuiper, H.
94.	12 December 1987	Throwing light on the nuclear darkness	Canberra Times	Hunter, T.
95.	16 February 1988	New Zealand Ponders a 'Nuclear Survival Kit'	New York Times	Mydans, S.
96.	19 February 1988	New Zealand after N-war, what?	New York Times	Mydans, S.
97.	28 March 1988	Study shows up antinuke support	Dominion
98.	3 August 1988	Conference looks at nuke aftermath	Dominion
99.	26 September 1988	Nuclear spring singsong	New Zealand Listener	Grant, A. K.
100.	16 November 1988	Nuclear aftermath	Daily Post (Rotorua)
101.	25 November 1988	Nuclear autumn danger	Guardian	Hulme, M.

Table 3: References for Discussion Paper 2022/03 – Nuclear War: Are we prepared?

This table lists all references, including those specific to the 1987 report New Zealand after Nuclear War. We have also provided PDFs of external sources in Table 3 below.

Endnote number	Reference in Discussion Paper 2022/03
1.	See Gary Hawke in Foreword to Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
2.	See Council of the New Zealand Ecological Society (Inc.). (1984). The environmental consequences to New Zealand of nuclear warfare in the northern hemisphere . Retrieved 26 November 2022 from https://newzealandecology.org/sites/default/files/NZES%201984%20Nuclear%20War%20statement.pdf
3.	See BBC. (1 August 2022). Nuclear annihilation just one miscalculation away, UN Chief warns. Retrieved 2 August 2022 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62381425
4.	See Ki-moon, Ban. (26 July 2022). Our nuclear fatalism must end. Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2 August 2022 from https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/26/nuclear-weapons-ban-ki-moon-fatalism-war-nonproliferation-treaty
5.	See Pelopidas, B. (2017). The unbearable lightness of luck: Three sources of overconfidence in the manageability of nuclear crises. European Journal of International Security, 2(2), 240–262. Retrieved 25 November 2022 from https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2017.6
6.	See Mian, Z. & Ramana, M. V. (8 April 2022). India’s inadvertent missile launch underscores the risk of accidental nuclear warfare. Scientific American. Retrieved 2 August 2022 from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indias-inadvertent-missile-launch-underscores-the-risk-of-accidental-nuclear-warfare
7.	See Kemp, L. et al. (2022). Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34). Retrieved 4 August 2022 from https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
8.	See Spratt, D. (2 September 2022). Pakistan is a hotspot for climate-driven human security crises. Climate Code Red. Retrieved 8 September 2022 from http://www.climatecodered.org/2022/09/pakistan-is-hotspot-for-climate-driven.html
9.	See Robock, A. et al. (2019). How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start – and have global consequences. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 75(6), 273–279. Retrieved 4 November 2022 from https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/IndiaPakistanBullAtomSci.pdf
10.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 25. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
11.	See Warner, F. (1988). The environmental effects of nuclear war. Environment, 30(5), 2–7. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
12.	See Harwell, M. A. & Freeman, A. C. (1988). Initiating national case studies. Environment, 30(5), 25–30. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
13.	See Xia, L. et al. (2022). Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climatic disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nature Food, 3, 586–596. Retrieved 30 September 2022 from https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0
14.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 9. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
15.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 162, 164. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
16.	See Wikipedia entry for an introduction to the technical aspects. Wikipedia. (24 October 2022). Nuclear electromagnetic pulse. Retrieved 14 November 2022 from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse
17.	Statistics New Zealand. (16 August 2022). National population estimates: At 30 June 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022 from https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-population-estimates-at-30-june-2022/
18.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council See Cronin, K. & Green, W. (1989). The New Zealand nuclear impacts study. Ambio, 18(7), 407–410. Retrieved 1 December from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war See Green, W. (1989). Nuclear war impacts on noncombatant societies: an important research task. Ambio, 18(7), 402–406. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
19.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 33–44. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
20.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 38–39. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
21.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 164. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
22.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 164. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
23.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 118-120. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
24.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 140. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
25.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 68–70. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
26.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 75. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
27.	See Pharmchoices. (2022). Full list of Pharmaceutical Companies in New Zealand, 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022 from https://pharmchoices.com/list-of-pharmaceutical-companies-in-new-zealand
28.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 92. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
29.	See Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment. (18 August 2022). Energy in New Zealand 2022 shows a strong share of renewable energy. Retrieved 18 November 2022 from https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/energy-in-new-zealand-2022-shows-a-strong-share-of-renewable-energy
30.	See Judd, W. (2000). The real oil. New Zealand Geographic, 048. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from www.nzgeo.com/stories/the-real-oil
31.	See Judd, W. (2000). The real oil. New Zealand Geographic, 048. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from www.nzgeo.com/stories/the-real-oil
32.	See Terry, S. (20 July 2022). We need to get serious about fuel supply resilience – and fast. Newsroom. Retrieved 26 September 2022 from https://www.newsroom.co.nz/we-need-to-get-serious-about-fuel-supplyresilience-and-fast
33.	See NZ Herald. (4 May 2022). More fuel storage needed now. Retrieved 26 September 2022 from https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/more-fuel-storage-needed-now/3K5VIGB6JFX7UYUGYPL4BSVMWA/
34.	See Woods, M. (9 November 2022). Fuel markets to become more resilient, sustainable and competitive [press release]. Beehive. Retrieved 10 November 2022 from www.beehive.govt.nz/release/fuel-markets-become-moreresilient-sustainable-and-competitive
35.	See National Road Carriers. (9 November 2022). National Road Carriers supports 21 days diesel holdings [press release]. Scoop. Retrieved 12 November 2022 from www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2211/S00147/national-roadcarriers-supports-21-days-diesel-holdings.htm
36.	See Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment. (26 May 2022). New Zealand’s participation in the International Energy Programme. Retrieved 18 November 2022 from https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/international-engagement-on-energy/new-zealands-participation-in-the-international-energy-programme/
37.	See Terry, S. (20 July 2022). We need to get serious about fuel supply resilience – and fast. Newsroom. Retrieved 26 September 2022 from https://www.newsroom.co.nz/we-need-to-get-serious-about-fuel-supplyresilience-and-fast
38.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 80. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
39.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, p. 83. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
40.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 88-90. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
41.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 61-67. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
42.	See Dixon, D. (2022). Cloud and sovereignty in Aotearoa. Catalyst Cloud. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from https://catalystcloud.nz/about/news/cloud-and-sovereignty-in-aotearoa
43.	See Dixon, D. (2022). Cloud and sovereignty in Aotearoa. Catalyst Cloud. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from https://catalystcloud.nz/about/news/cloud-and-sovereignty-in-aotearoa
44.	See New Zealand Government. (10 October 2022). Assess countries and service providers for data sovereignty. Retrieved 25 November 2022 from www.digital.govt.nz/standards-and-guidance/technology-and-architecture/cloud-services/help/data-sovereignty/countries-and-service-providers
45.	See Dixon, D. (2022). Cloud and sovereignty in Aotearoa. Catalyst Cloud. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from https://catalystcloud.nz/about/news/cloud-and-sovereignty-in-aotearoa
46.	See Dixon, D. (2022). Cloud and sovereignty in Aotearoa. Catalyst Cloud. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from https://catalystcloud.nz/about/news/cloud-and-sovereignty-in-aotearoa
47.	Disabling submarine cables is relatively easy. Britain’s first act in the First World War was to cut Germany’s undersea telegraph cables. The vulnerability of fibre optic cables in times of conflict is well documented. See Sunak, R. (2017). Undersea cables. Indispensable, insecure. Policy Exchange, UK. Retrieved 4 October 2022 from https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Undersea-Cables.pdf
48.	See New Zealand Planning Council. (September 1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War: The Background Papers (15), p. 5. Retrieved 27 November 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
49.	One aspect of crisis communication can be the reluctance of experts, including scientists, to openly convey uncertainty about what is unknown in the fear that it will reduce public trust. Recent experiments suggest this fear can be unfounded; uncertainty led to only a small decrease in trust in the trustworthiness of the source. Crisis communications, therefore, can be more open and transparent about what is unknown at the time. See van der Bles, A. M. et al. (2020). The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(14), 7672–7683. Retrieved 24 November 2022 from https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913678117
50.	See Bureau European des Unions de Consommateurs (BEUC). (1986). Chernobyl: the aftermath. BEUC/118/86. Historical Archives of the European Union, BEUC 73. Brussels. Retrieved 8 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
51.	See Katz, A. M. (1982). Life after nuclear war: The economic and social impacts of nuclear attacks on the United States. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Co. The important lessons that were learned about communications during a crisis are well covered in Pell, H. (5 May 2020). Three Mile Island and lessons in crisis communication. Physics Today. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.6.4.20200505a/full/
52.	See New Zealand Planning Council. (September 1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War: The Background Papers (15), pp. 4–5. Retrieved 27 November 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
53.	See New Zealand Planning Council. (September 1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War: The Background Papers (15), pp. 5–6. Retrieved 27 November 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
54.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 126-132. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
55.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 148-149. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
56.	See Gary Hawke in Foreword to Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War, p. 8. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
57.	See Green, W., Cairns, T. & Wright, J. (1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War. Wellington: New Zealand Planning Council, pp. 149-150. Retrieved 1 December 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/about/the-james-duncan-reference-library/new-zealand-planning-council
58.	Lange, D. (22 April 1988). Examination of ‘national emergencies’ [press statement]. Retrieved 30 November 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/policy-projects/foresight-nz/revisiting-tomorrow/nuclear-war
59.	See New Zealand Law Commission. (December 1991). Final report on emergencies (Report 22). Wellington: NZLC, Appendix D4. Retrieved 18 November 2022 from http://www.nzlii.org/nz/other/nzlc/report/R22/R22.pdf
60.	See Homer-Dixon, T. et al. (2015). Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crises. Ecology and Society, 20(3), 6. Retrieved 25 November 2022 from http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07681-200306
61.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (2022). Aotearoa’s National Security Strategy. Retrieved 21 November 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security/aotearoas-national-security-strategy
62.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (2022). Aotearoa’s National Security Strategy. Retrieved 21 November 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security/aotearoas-national-security-strategy
63.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (2020). New Zealand’s national security system. Retrieved 28 October 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security-and-intelligence/national-security/newzealands-national-security
64.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Information Sheet 4: New Zealand’s National Security System. Retrieved 14 November 2022 from https://dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2021-02/RCOI%20Info%20Sheet%204%20National%20Security%20System.pdf
65.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (12 August 2022). Aotearoa’s National Security Strategy. Retrieved 14 November 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security/aotearoas-nationalsecurity-strategy
66.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (2020). New Zealand’s national security system. Retrieved 21 November 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security-and-intelligence/national-security/newzealands-national-security
67.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (2020). New Zealand’s national security system. Retrieved 28 October 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security-and-intelligence/national-security/newzealands-national-security
68.	See Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. (2020). New Zealand’s national security system. Retrieved 21 November 2022 from dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security-and-intelligence/national-security/newzealands-national-security
69.	In 1959, the Ministry of Civil Defence was established and became a business unit managed by the Department of Internal Affairs. In 1999, the Ministry of Civil Defence was renamed the Ministry for Emergency Management and later retitled the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management (MCDEM). In 2014, MCDEM moved to the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. In 2019, MCDEM was renamed the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA); it became an operationally autonomous agency with its own chief executive, responsible for leading and coordinating across the emergency management system (including central and local government) for all hazards and all risks. See Kaye, N. (1 April 2014). Civil defence moves to Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet [press release]. Beehive. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from www.beehive.govt.nz/release/civil-defence-moves-department-prime-minister-and-cabinet See Henare, P. (29 November 2019). Launch of the National Emergency Management Agency [press release]. Beehive. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from www.beehive.govt.nz/release/launch-national-emergency-management-agency
70.	See Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002 Section 4 Interpretation. New Zealand Legislation. Retrieved 22 November 2022 from www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0033/51.0/DLM149796.html
71.	See National Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). National Emergency Management Agency. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from www.civildefence.govt.nz/about/about-nema
72.	See Allan, K. (17 December 2021). New legislation to modernise emergency management system [press release]. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-legislation-modernise-emergency-management-system
73.	See National Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). Building a modern and inclusive emergency management system. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from https://www.mcguinnessinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Endnote-88-Building-modern-and-inclusive-EMS.pdf
74.	See National Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). Building a modern and inclusive emergency management system. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from https://www.mcguinnessinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Endnote-88-Building-modern-and-inclusive-EMS.pdf
75.	See Ministry of Civil Defence. (2019). National Disaster Resilience Strategy. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/publications/National-Disaster-Resilience-Strategy/National-Disaster-Resilience-Strategy-10-April-2019.pdf
76.	See National Emergency Management Agency. (June 2022). Briefing to the incoming Minister for Emergency Management. Briefing number: 22/62, p. 21. Retrieved 23 November 2022 from www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/publications/EM-NEMA-BIM-June-2022.pdf
77.	See New Zealand Planning Council. (September 1987). New Zealand after Nuclear War: The Background Papers (15), p. 6. Retrieved 27 November 2022 from mcguinnessinstitute.org/wp-content/ uploads/2022/11/20221125-BP15.pdf