List of national scenarios
Part of the McGuinness Institute’s Civics NZ project
The Institute defines a scenario as a process for identifying and assessing the future under conditions of uncertainty, using more than one variable, in at least two or more possible worlds. This is in contrast to sensitivity analysis, where only one variable is used.
National scenarios are those that look at New Zealand as a whole, but can be specific or general in nature. An example of a specific scenario is climate change scenarios (which aim to identify and assess the possible risks, challenges and opportunities of changes in climate on a country). In contrast, a general scenario identifies and assesses a wide range of issues (e.g. social unrest, an economic recession and climate change) through a broad lens. To help analyse the scenarios, the Institute has categorised all national scenarios by scenario type. Each scenario type reflects a range of subjects. Note also that local government scenarios might be either specific or general, but are not national.
Table 1 below is a list of national scenarios found online on or before 15 December 2022. Table 2 is a list of local government scenarios found on or before 15 December 2022.
These tables form part of the Institute’s work exploring the scenario landscape within Aotearoa New Zealand, which includes the following papers.
- Working Paper 2021/07: Scoping the use of the term ‘climate scenarios’ and other climate-related terms in Aotearoa New Zealand and international literature
- Working Paper 2021/10: Analysis of Existing Scenarios in Aotearoa New Zealand
- Working Paper 2023/01: List of publicly available national and local scenarios
- Discussion Paper 2023/02: Establishing national climate-related reference scenarios
Please email any additions to us at enquiries@mcguinnessinstitute.org with the subject heading ‘Aotearoa New Zealand Scenarios’ with any additions. We are keen to bring together as many scenarios as possible to help shape and inform both our thinking and that of those interested in foresight work.
Note: Both Table 1 and Table 2 are currently in draft.
Table 1: List of National Scenarios (as at 15 December 2022)
| Entity | Scenario title # | Date Published | Type* | Subject* | Breadth* | Time Horizon | Climate-related* | Explicit/Implicit Climate | Data/guidance (entity)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority | New Zealand Energy Scenarios | May-21 | Energy | Energy | Wide | 42 years (2018 - 2060) (p. 17) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (EECA, BEC and Paul Scherrer Institut) |
| BusinessNZ Energy Council | New Zealand Energy Scenarios - Navigating our flight path to 2060 | n.d. | Energy | Fuel | Wide | 45 years (2015-2060) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Deloitte | COVID-19 scenario analysis - Auckland: Navigating uncertainty through macroeconomic scenario modelling | Jun-20 | Economics | COVID-19 | Narrow | 10 years (2020-2030) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Deloitte | COVID-19 scenario analysis - Waikato: Navigating uncertainty through macroeconomic scenario modelling | Jun-20 | Economics | COVID-19 | Narrow | 10 years (2020-2030) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Deloitte | COVID-19 scenario analysis – Bay of Plenty: Navigating uncertainty through macroeconomic scenario modelling | Jun-20 | Economics | COVID-19 | Narrow | 10 years (2020-2030) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Deloitte | COVID-19 scenario analysis - Wellington: Navigating uncertainty through macroeconomic scenario modelling | Jun-20 | Economics | COVID-19 | Narrow | 10 years (2020-2030) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Deloitte | COVID-19 scenario analysis - Canterbury: Navigating uncertainty through macroeconomic scenario modelling | Jun-20 | Economics | COVID-19 | Narrow | 10 years (2020-2030) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Deloitte | COVID-19 scenario analysis - Otago: Navigating uncertainty through macroeconomic scenario modelling | Jun-20 | Economics | COVID-19 | Narrow | 10 years (2020-2030) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Department of Conservation (DOC) | Integrated population model of Antipodean albatross for simulating management scenarios | Jun-21 | Biodiversity | Conservation | Narrow | 30 Years (2021-2051) (p. 16) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Dragonfly) |
| Department of Conservation (DOC) | Mark-Recapture Sample Size Effects on Demographic Rate Estimation of White-capped Albatross | Nov-15 | Biodiversity | Conservation | Narrow | 10 years (2015-2025) (p.10) | No | No | Yes (NIWA) |
| Department of Conservation (DOC) | Potential climate change effects on New Zealand marine mammals: a review | Aug-22 | Climate Change | Biodiversity | Wide | 78 years (2022-2100) p. 9 | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Department of Internal Affairs | Sector report: Gaming machine mystery shopper exercise results | Jun-17 | Economics | Social welfare | Medium | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Department of Internal Affairs | Government Inquiry into The Auckland Fuel Supply Disruption | Aug-19 | Infrastructure | Fuel | Medium | 21 years (2019-2040) (p. 18) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Department of Labour | Economic Impacts of Immigration: Scenarios Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model of the New Zealand Economy | 2009 | Economics | Immigration | Wide | 10 years (2011-2021) (p. 24) | No | No | Yes (International Migration, Settlement and Employment Dynamics) |
| Inland Revenue Department | Accounting for the wage subsidy: Example scenarios for individuals | Sep-21 | Health | COVID-19 | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research New Zealand | 4 Future Scenarios for New Zealand | 2007 | Economics | Identity | Wide | 48-years (2055) (p. 17) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research New Zealand | Evaluating the (non-market) impacts of wilding conifers on cultural values | Oct-15 | Biodiversity | Conservation | Narrow | 20 years (2015 - 2035) (p. v) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Landcare Manaaki Whenua and Scion) |
| Māori Futures Collective | Kia Puta Ki Rangiātea: Reaching new futures | n.d. | Economics | Māori futures | Wide | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Children | Engaging all New Zealanders Survey Report****: Children in New Zealand Communities, 2019 | 2019 | Economics | Social welfare | Wide | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Nielsen) |
| Ministry for Children | Evening The Odds - Modelling Wellbeing To Drive Better Outcomes**** | Nov-17 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | 10 years (2016-2026) (p. 12) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Children | Evaluation of the family violence Integrated Safety Response pilot: Phase II – Years 2 & 3 | Sep-19 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | 10 years (2019-2029) (p. 71) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Children | Information sharing Scenarios**** | n.d. | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Children | Lifetime Wellbeing Model For New Zealand Children**** | n.d. | Economics | Social welfare | Wide | 10 years (2021-2031) (p. 8) | No | No | Yes (EY) |
| Ministry for Children | Babies Entering Oranga Tamariki Care**** | n.d. | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Nelson/Marlborough Forest Industry and Wood Availability Forecasts | 2006 | Economics | Forestry | Medium | 35 years (2005-2040) (p. 19) | No | No | Yes (NEFD) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Effectiveness of stream fencing to reduce E. coli inputs to streams from pastoral land use | 2016 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Medium | 9 years (2016-2025) (p. 7) | No | No | Yes (AgResearch) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Flood Risk under Climate Change: A framework for assessing the impacts of climate change on river flow and floods, using dynamically-downscaled climate scenarios | Mar-10 | Climate Change | Weather | Medium | 500 years (2010-2510) (p. 36) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Study on global voluntary carbon market opportunities for New Zealand agriculture and forestry | Apr-11 | Climate Change | Climate Change | Medium | n.k. | Yes | Explicit | Yes (The Karo Group and Ecosystem Marketplace) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Future proofing plantation forests from pests | Apr-11 | Biodiversity | Conservation | Wide | 69 years (2011-2080) (p. 5) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Scion) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Scenarios of Regional Drought under Climate Change | Jun-11 | Climate Change | Weather | Wide | 79 years (2011-2090) (p. 15) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Foot-and-Mouth Disease Economic Impact Assessment: What it means for New Zealand | Aug-14 | Economics | Agriculture | Narrow | 8 years (2012- 2020) (p. 21) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Sale of Raw Milk to Consumers: Regulatory Impact Statement | Jun-15 | Economics | Agriculture | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Modelling Agriculture’s Contribution to New Zealand’s Contribution to the Post-2020 Agreement | Feb-16 | Climate Change | Agriculture | Medium | 34 years (2016-2050) (p. 3) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Urban Development and the NPS-FM: Lucas Creek Catchment Case Study | Oct-16 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Narrow | 50 years (2010-2060) (p. 7) | No | No | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Assessment of the administration costs and barriers of scenarios to mitigate biological emissions from agriculture | May-18 | Climate Change | Agriculture | Medium | 5 years (2018-2023) (p. 14) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Beca Limited) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Population dynamic modelling of the Māui dolphin based on genotype capture-recapture with projections involving bycatch and disease risk | Jun-19 | Biodiversity | Conservation | Narrow | 100 years (2019-2119) (p. 12) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Population effects of New Zealand sea lion mortality scenarios relating to the southern arrow squid fishery at the Auckland Islands | Jul-19 | Biodiversity | Conservation | Narrow | 20 years (2020-2040) (p. 14) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Modelling of agricultural climate change mitigation policy scenarios | Aug-19 | Climate Change | Agriculture | Medium | n.k. | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Growth of microorganisms in raw milk: Evaluating the effect of chiller failure | Feb-20 | Economics | Food and Fibre | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | Yes (ESR) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Sheep and Beef Scenario map***** | n.d. | Economics | Agriculture | Narrow | 12 months (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Deer finishing scenario map***** | n.d. | Economics | Agriculture | Narrow | 12 months (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Dairy - on farm scenario map***** | n.d. | Economics | Agriculture | Narrow | 12 months (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Dairy - off farm scenario map***** | n.d. | Economics | Agriculture | Narrow | 12 months (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Models, scenarios and uncertainties - Climate change**** | n.d. | Climate Change | Climate Change | Wide | 100 years (2000-2100) (p. 2) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI)** | Scenarios of Storminess and Regional Wind Extremes Under Climate Change | 2011 | Climate Change | Weather | Medium | 2046-2065, 2081-2100 (p. vi) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI)** | Adapting to climate change: Information for the New Zealand food system | n.d. | Climate Change | Food and Fibre | Medium | 50-, 100- years (p. 11) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (ESR, Massey University, NIWA, AgResearch) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Impacts of climate change mitigation policy scenarios on the primary sector | Sep-22 | Climate Change | Mitigation | Medium | 8 years (2022-2030) (p.26) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Support for the National Climate Risk Assessment: Processes for the identification and quantification of climate change risk for the primary sectors | Mar-22 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Medium | 2022-2040, 2022-2090 (p. 123) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Scion) |
| Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Five Further ABARE Scenarios | Feb-02 | Climate Change | Economics | Wide | 8 years (2002-2010) (p. 3) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (ABARE) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Linkages Between Climate Change and Biodiversity in New Zealand | Sep-01 | Climate Change | Biodiversity | Wide | 99 years (2001-2100) (p. 9) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Electricity Emission Factor Review | Aug-04 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 8 years (2004-2012) (p. 1) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Concept Consulting group) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Changes in drought risk with climate change | May-05 | Climate Change | Weather | Wide | 75 years (2005-2080) (p. v) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Scoping Report For An Environmental Assessment Of The NZ Emissions Trading Scheme And Closely Related Measures | Apr-08 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Wide | 17 years (2008-2025) (p. 6) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Cawthron) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for local government in New Zealand – 2nd edition | May-08 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Wide | 91 years (2008-2099) (p. xi) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA, MWH NZ and Earthwise consulting Ltd) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Emerging technologies and research for New Zealand’s economic development and associated risk management: Economic and scenario modelling | Jun-11 | Economics | Risk Management | Wide | 10 years (2011-2021) (p. 23) | No | No | Yes (CIE) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | General Equilibrium Analysis of Options for Meeting New Zealand’s International Emissions Obligations | Oct-07 | Climate Change | Mitigation | Wide | 18 years (2007-2025) (p. 2) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Infometrics) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Potential climate change impacts on myrtle rust risk in Aotearoa New Zealand | Nov-11 | Climate Change | Agriculture | Narrow | 80 years (2020-2100) (p. 7) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Environmental Assessment of Farm Mitigation Scenarios in Southland | Jun-13 | Economics | Agriculture | Medium | 25 years (2012-2037) (p. 1) | No | No | Yes (Aqualinc Research Ltd) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Southland: Overview of studies assessing the potential impacts of scenarios for setting water quality objectives | Oct-13 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Medium | 24 years (2013-2037) (p. 11) | No | No | No |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Modelling the impact of freshwater mitigation scenarios: results for the Ruamāhanga Catchment | Jun-19 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Narrow | 61 years (2019–2080) (p. vi) | No | No | Yes (Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Sediment Attributes and Urban Development | Sep-19 | Infrastructure | Urban Development | Medium | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Morphum Environmentat Ltd) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | The economic effects of water quality proposals: Modelling scenarios | May-20 | Economics | Land-use | Wide | 30 years (2020-2050) (p. i) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (NZIER) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: Guidance for local government | Dec-17 | Climate Change | Weather | Medium | 103-133 years (2120, 2150) (p. 97) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Climate Change Projections for New Zealand: Atmospheric projections based on simulations undertaken for the IPCC 5th Assessment 2nd edition | Sep-18 | Climate Change | Weather | Wide | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 13) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Ministry for the Environment (MfE) | Aotearoa New Zealand climate change projections guidance: Interpreting the latest IPCC WG1 report findings | Apr-22 | Climate Change | Climate Change | Wide | Multiple (Mid/end of century) p. 27 | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Bodeker Scientific Ltd, National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, University of Auckland, University of Canterbury, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand’s Energy Outlook 2009/2010: Changing Gear | 2009 | Energy | Fuel | Wide | 31 years (2009-2040) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand’s Energy Outlook 2009/2010: Hydrocarbon Harvest | 2009 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | 31 years (2009-2040) (p. 2) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand’s Energy Outlook 2010: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis | 2010 | Energy | Energy | Wide | 20 years (2010-2030) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Research On The Economic Impacts Of Immigration 2005–2010: Synthesis And Research Agenda | 2010 | Economics | Immigration | Wide | 6 years (2010-2016) (p. 22) | No | No | Yes (International Migration, Settlement and Employment Dynamics) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand’s Energy Outlook 2011: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis | 2011 | Energy | Energy | Wide | 20 years (2010-2030) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios: Scenario and results summary | Jul-19 | Energy | Electricity | Medium | 31 years (2050) (p.3) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Alternative Liquid Fuels: Global Availability, Economics and Environmental Impacts | Mar-07 | Energy | Fuel | Narrow | 3, 23, 43 years (2007-2010, 2030, 2050) (p. 30) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (EME Consulting) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | The Economic Impact of Immigration on Housing in New Zealand 1991–2016 | Mar-08 | Infrastructure | Housing | Wide | 10 years (2006-2016) (p. 3) | No | No | Yes (Berl economics) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Assessment of the future costs and Performence of Solar Photovoltaic Technologies in New Zealand | Apr-09 | Energy | Electricity | Narrow | 40 years (2000-2040) (p. 9) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (IT Power Australia and Southern Perspectives) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | The Impact of Immigration on the Labour Market Outcomes of New Zealanders | Apr-09 | Economics | Employment | Wide | n.k. | No | No | Yes (International Migration, Settlement and Employment Dynamics) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Validation of Electricity Modelling for Energy Outlook | Jul-10 | Energy | Electricity | Medium | 25 years (2010-2035) (p. 2) | No | No | Yes (Energy Link Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Auckland’s Competitive Advantage And Distinctiveness | Apr-11 | Economics | Identity | Medium | 24 years (2007-2031) (p. 123) | No | No | Yes (M.E Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | RAP Contingency Options | Oct-11 | Energy | Fuel | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Hale and Twomey Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Regional Impacts Of A New Oil Or Gas Field | Mar-12 | Economics | Energy | Medium | 24 years (2012-2046) (p. 7) | No | No | Yes (Berl economics) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Information for NZIER Report on Oil Security | May-12 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Hale and Twomey Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Oil Security Assessment Update | Jun-12 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | n.k. | No | No | Yes (NZIER) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Economic contribution and potential of New Zealand’s oil and gas industry | Aug-12 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | 37 years (2013-2050) (p. 8) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Oil Resource Play - Development Scenario Models | Oct-12 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | 8 years (2012-2020) (p. 10) | No | No | Yes (Michael Adams Reservoir Engineering) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | East Coast oil and gas development study: Economic potential of oil and gas development | Nov-12 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | 61 years (2012-2073) (p. 1) | No | No | Yes (NZIER) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand’s Tourism Sector Outlook: Forecasts for 2012-2018 | Nov-12 | Economics | Tourism | Wide | 6 years (2012-2018) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | National Science Challenges - Potential Challenges for Consideration by Peak Panel - Agriculture and the Bioeconomy Including Resource Management | Feb-13 | Economics | Agriculture | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | National Science Challenges - Potential Challenges for Consideration by Peak Panel - Economic Growth including Energy, Waste Management and Transport | Feb-13 | Economics | Innovation | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Tourism Sector Outlook: Forecasts for 2013-19 | Aug-13 | Economics | Tourism | Wide | 6 years (2013-2019) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Gas Disruption Study: Report on the potential impacts on the NZ gas market | Jan-14 | Energy | Fuel | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Worley Parsons) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Coal Prices in New Zealand Markets: 2013 Update | Jan-14 | Economics | Energy | Medium | 23 years (2012-2035) (p. 5) | No | No | Yes (Covec) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | What Does Asia Want For Dinner? Emerging market opportunities for New Zealand food & beverages in East & South East Asia | Jul-14 | Economics | Food and Fibre | Medium | 28 years (1997-2025) (p. 8) | No | No | Yes (Coriolis) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Tourism Sector Outlook: Forecasts For 2014-2020 | Sep-14 | Economics | Tourism | Wide | 6 years (2014-2020) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2015-2021 | May-15 | Economics | Tourism | Wide | 6 years (2015-2021) (p. 3) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Weather Permitting: Review of open access to weather data in New Zealand | Dec-17 | Biodiversity | Environment | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Implicit | Yes (PwC and Experian) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Electricity demand and generation scenarios: Scenario and results summary | Aug-16 | Energy | Electricity | Medium | 34 years (2016-2050) (p. 3) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Petroleum Supply Security 2017 Update | Sep-17 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Hale and Twomey Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Economic Evaluation of Disclosure of Origin Requirements | Apr-18 | Economics | Identity | Narrow | 30 years (2018-2048) (p. 20) | No | No | Yes (Castalia strategic advisors) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Minimum Wage Review 2018 | Nov-18 | Economics | Employment | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Economics of Fuel Supply Disruptions and Mitigations | May-19 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | n.k. | No | No | Yes (M.E Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Electricity demand and generation scenarios: Scenario and results summary | Jul-19 | Energy | Electricity | Medium | 32 years (2018-2050) (p. 7) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Medium to long-term employment projections: Looking ahead to 2028 | Aug-19 | Economics | Employment | Medium | 10 years (2018-2028) (p. 3) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Minimum Wage Review 2019 | Dec-19 | Economics | Employment | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Economics of Utility-Scale Solar in Aotearoa New Zealand | May-20 | Economics | Energy | Narrow | 40 years (2020-2060) (p. 1) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Allan Miller consulting) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Energy in New Zealand 2020 | Aug-20 | Energy | Energy | Wide | 30 years (2020-2050) (p. 22) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Minimum Wage Review 2020 | Dec-20 | Economics | Employment | Narrow | 4 years (2020-2024) (p. 29) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Fuel Security and Fuel Stockholding Costs and Benefits 2020 | Dec-20 | Economics | Energy | Medium | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Hale and Twomey Ltd) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | National Construction Pipeline Report 2020 | Dec-20 | Infrastructure | Infrastructure | Medium | 5 years (2020-2025) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Review of FMA Funding Scenarios | Aug-21 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 4 years (2021-2025) (p. 5) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Deloitte) |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand’s Energy Outlook Electricity Insight | n.d. | Energy | Electricity | Wide | 27 years (2013-2040) (p. 4) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | Regulatory impact statement: Managing buildings after an emergency event | n.d. | Infrastructure | Urban Development | Medium | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) | New Zealand Hydrogen Scenarios | Jun-22 | Energy | Fuel | Wide | 28 years (2022-2050) (p. 2) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Castalia) |
| Ministry of Health | Guide to PRIMHD Activity Collection and Use | 2021 | Health | Health | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Health | Diabetes Surveillance Population-based estimates and projections for New Zealand, 2001–2011 | Sep-07 | Health | Health | Wide | 4 years (2007-2011) (p. 13) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Health | Screening level Risk Characterization for Mercury Exposure from Compact Fluorescent Lamps | Dec-08 | Health | Health | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment (TERA)) |
| Ministry of Health | Potential Health Impacts from the COVID-19 Pandemic for New Zealand if Eradication Fails: Report to the NZ Ministry of Health | Mar-20 | Health | COVID-19 | Medium | 9 months (p. 6) | No | No | Yes (Health, Environment & Infection Research Unit (HEIRU), Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE³) and University of Otago Wellington) |
| Ministry of Health | Potential Worse Case Health Impacts from the COVID-19 Pandemic for New Zealand if Eradication Fails: Report to the NZ Ministry of Health | Mar-20 | Health | COVID-19 | Medium | 1 year (2020-2021) (p. 3) | No | No | Yes (Health, Environment & Infection Research Unit (HEIRU), Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE³) and University of Otago Wellington) |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development | New Zealand Housing Report 2009/2010: Structure, Pressures and Issues | Sep-10 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 25 years (2006-2031) (p. 21) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development | Urban Development Authorities: Discussion document | Feb-17 | Infrastructure | Urban Development | Medium | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development | Healthy Homes Standards: Proposed healthy homes standards for heating, insulation, ventilation, moisture ingress, drainage and draught stopping | Sep-18 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development | Public Housing Funding Review 2019 | Mar-20 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 25 years (2020-2045) (p. 35) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development | Infrastructure fund | Apr-21 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development/ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment | Cost benefit analysis for a minimum standard for rental housing | Nov-14 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 20 years (2014-2034) (p. 8) | No | No | Yes (Sapere research group) |
| Ministry of Housing and Urban Development/ Ministry for the Environment | Cost-benefit analysis of proposed Medium Density Residential Standards | 2021 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 5 years (2021-2026) (p. 68) | No | No | Yes (PWC and Sense Partners) |
| Ministry of Justice | The Use of Imprisonment in New Zealand | Jun-98 | Security | Justice | Wide | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Justice | Justice Sector Forecast: Criminal Justice Forecast 2010-2020 | Sep-10 | Security | Justice | Medium | 2010-2020 (10 years) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Justice | Justice Sector Forecast 2011-2021 | Sep-11 | Security | Justice | Medium | 10 years (2011-2021) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Justice | Justice Sector Forecast 2012-2022 | Sep-12 | Security | Justice | Medium | 10 years (2012-2022) (p. 1) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Social Development | Implications of Labour Market Change for Retirement Income Policy | 2001 | Economics | Social welfare | Wide | 50 years (2001-2051) (p. 10) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Social Development | Business of Ageing Update: Final Report 2015 | 2015 | Economics | Social welfare | Wide | 55 years (2006-2061) (p. 37) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Social Development | Future Liability: Estimating time on benefit and the associated cost | Oct-10 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | 10 years (2009-2019) (p. 7) | No | No | Yes (Centre for Social Research and Evaluation) |
| Ministry of Social Development | Actuarial valuation of the Benefit System for Working-age Adults as at 30 June 2011 | Jun-11 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Taylor Fry Pty Ltd) |
| Ministry of Social Development | Baseline valuation of the social housing system | Jun-15 | Economics | Social welfare | Wide | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Taylor Fry Pty Ltd) |
| Ministry of Social Development | Report of the Enhancing Intake Decision-Making Project | Oct-17 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Social Development | Designing a wage supplement approach as a possible alternative to Minimum Wage Exemption permits | Sep-18 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Social Development | COVID 19 Provider Funding Framework | n.d. | Economics | Employment | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Social Development | Families Package changes to income support and financial incentives for model families – technical companion report | Jan-22 | Economics | Social welfare | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Transport (MoT) | Air New Zealand - Singapore Airlines Strategic Alliance Analysis | Dec-13 | Infrastructure | Transport | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | Yes (Seabury APG Airline Planning) |
| Ministry of Transport (MoT) | Regulation 2025 Scenarios summary and key findings | Aug-16 | Infrastructure | Transport | Medium | 10 years (2025-2035) (p. 2) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Transport (MoT) | Transport Outlook: Future State | Nov-17 | Infrastructure | Transport | Medium | 25 years (2017-2042) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| Ministry of Transport (MoT) | Future Demand: How could or should our transport system evolve in order to support mobility in the future? | Nov-14 | Infrastructure | Transport | Wide | 28-years (2042) (p. 1) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Ministry of Transport (MoT) | Mauri Oia ki Mua: Visions of wellbeing for Aotearoa New Zealand 2050–2070 | Jun-21 | Infrastructure | Infrastructure | Wide | 49 years (2021-2070) (p. 11) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Motu | Land-use modelling in New Zealand: current practice and future needs | Nov-18 | Infrastructure | Land use | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Motu | Potential Social Impacts of Land-use Changes, 2020-2050 | Mar-19 | Climate Change | Land use | Wide | 30 years (2020-2050) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Motu | Climate And Land-Use Change: A Synthesis Of Lurnz Modelling | May-19 | Climate Change | Land use | Medium | 80 years (2019-2099) (p. 4) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Motu | Land-use Change as a Mitigation Option for Climate Change | Dec-18 | Climate Change | Land-use | Medium | 32 years (2018-2050) (p. 25) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| National Infrastructure Unit | The Thirty Year New Zealand Infrastructure Plan 2015 | Aug-15 | Infrastructure | Infrastructure | Wide | 30 years (2015-2045) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Waterwise: irrigation, agriculture, and sustainability | 2008 | Biodiversity | Agriculture | Narrow | 4 years (2000-2004) (p. 2) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | CHES For The Grey River Catchment | 2016 | Biodiversity | Water quality | Narrow | n.k. | Yes | Implicit | No |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Transitioning to a Hydrogen Economy: Identification of Preferred Hydrogen Chains | Nov-07 | Energy | Energy | Medium | 43 years (2007-2050) (p. 5) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (CRL energy and Industrial Research Limited (IRL)) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Bioenergy Options for New Zealand - Pathways Analysis | Aug-08 | Energy | Fuel | Wide | 42 years (2008-2050) (p. 17) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Scion) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Transitioning to Hydrogen Economy - Hydrogen Energy Options: Scenarios, Sensitivities and Pathways | Nov-08 | Economics | Energy | Medium | 42 years (2008-2050) (p. 3) | No | No | Yes (CRL energy, Industrial Research Limited (IRL) and Unitec) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Bioenergy Options for New Zealand - Research And Development Strategy | Feb-09 | Energy | Fuel | Wide | 41 years (2009-2050) (p. 6) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Scion) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Bioenergy Options For New Zealand Analysis Of Large-Scale Bioenergy From Forestry | Apr-09 | Energy | Fuel | Medium | 41 years (2009-2050) (p. 20) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Scion) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Transitioning to a Hydrogen Economy - Hydrogen Research Strategy for Facilitating the Uptake of Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier in New Zealand | May-09 | Economics | Energy | Medium | 41 years (2009-2050) (p. 3) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (CRL energy and Industrial Research Limited (IRL)) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Modelling Future Water Demand for Wellington using Multiple Climate Change Scenarios | Jun-11 | Climate Change | Infrastructure | Medium | 79 years (2011-2090) (p. 11) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (MWH) |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century | Dec-17 | Biodiversity | Environment | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Explicit | Yes (IPBES) |
| New Zealand Treasury | Manual for the Long Term Fiscal Model | Mar-00 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand | Mar-02 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 50 years (2001-2051) (p. 19) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving | Jun-03 | Economics | Population | Wide | 48 years (2003-2051) (p. 2) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position | Jan-10 | Economics | Economics | Wide | 40 years (2010-2050) (p. i) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Save now, prosper later: A CGE investigation of increased rates of saving – additional scenarios | Mar-11 | Economics | Economics | Wide | 14 years (2011-2025) (p. 3) | No | No | Yes (NZIER) |
| New Zealand Treasury | Modelling Shocks to New Zealand’s Fiscal Position | Jun-11 | Economics | Economics | Wide | 19 years (2006-2025) (p. 18) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Economy-Wide Impacts of Industry Policy | Sep-12 | Economics | Economics | Medium | n.k. | Yes | Implicit | Yes (NZIER) |
| New Zealand Treasury | Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs | Jul-13 | Economics | Economics | Wide | 45 years (2015-2060) (p. 5) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Fiscal Policy Scenarios to 2030 | Oct-16 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 15 years (2015-2030) (p. 3) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Using IDI Data to Estimate Fiscal Impacts of Better Social Sector Performance | Nov-16 | Economics | Economics | Medium | 45 years (2015-2060) (p. 17) | No | No | Yes (Statistics New Zealand) |
| New Zealand Treasury | Fiscal Policy Scenarios to 2030 | Mar-17 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 14 years (2017-2031) (p. 7) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Overseas Investment in Forestry**** | Jul-18 | Economics | Forestry | Narrow | n.k. | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Golden Years – Understanding the New Zealand Superannuation Fund | Jun-21 | Economics | Social Welfare | Narrow | 50 years (2015-2065) (p. 25) | No | No | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Shocks and Scenarios Analysis Using a Stochastic Neoclassical Growth Model | Sep-21 | Economics | Economics | Wide | 40 years (2021-2061) (p. i) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| New Zealand Treasury | Infrastructure Evidence Base | Feb-14 | Infrastructure | Infrastructure | Medium | 50-years (2067) (p. 2) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (StatsNZ, MfE, etc) |
| New Zealand Treasury | Long-term Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War – a Tipping Point? | Aug-22 | Economics | Economics | Wide | n.k. | Yes | Implicit | No |
| New Zealand Transport Agency | Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network Volume Two: Approach to Risk Management | 2009 | Climate Change | Infrastructure | Medium | 10, 50, 100-year (2019, 2059, 2109) (p. 7) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Office for Seniors | Business of Ageing 2021 | Jun-22 | Economics | Social welfare | Wide | 50 years (2021-2071) (p. 4) | No | No | Yes (NZIER) |
| Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) | Future Currents: Electricity scenarios for New Zealand 2005–2050 | 2005 | Energy | Electricity | Medium | 45-years (2005-2050) (p. 11) | No | No | No |
| Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) | Healthy, Wealthy and Wise: A health impact assessment of Future currents – Electricity scenarios for New Zealand 2005–2050 | Nov-06 | Health | Electricity | Medium | 45-years (2005-2050) (p. 13) | No | No | Yes (Quigley And Watts Ltd) |
| Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) | Land Use and Farming Intensity: For 1996, 2008 and 2020 | Nov-13 | Economics | Land use | Medium | 7 years (2013-2020) (p. 2) | No | No | Yes (Motu) |
| Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) | Preparing New Zealand for rising seas: Certainty and Uncertainty | Nov-15 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Wide | 85 years (2015-2100) (p. 75) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Public Service commission | Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Mainstream Supported Employment Programme 1998 | 1998 | Economics | Employment | Narrow | 1-6 and 7-21 years (1998-2004 and 1998-2019) (p. 4) | No | No | No |
| Public Service commission | Strengthening Strategic Management: Summary of Fiscal Modelling Work | n.d. | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 55 years (1996-2051) (Demographic estimates) | No | No | Yes (NZIER) |
| Public Service commission | Getting Better at Managing for Shared Outcomes | Aug-04 | Economics | Management | Narrow | n.k. | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand | Economic outlook**** | Aug-20 | Economics | Economics | Wide | 3 years (2020-2023) (p. 10) | No | No | No |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand | 2022 Bank Solvency Stress Test: Assessing the resilience of banks to a stagflation scenario. | Oct-22 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 4 years (2022-2026) p. 8 | No | No | No |
| Sports New Zealand | Scenarios report: The Future of Play, Active Recreation and Sport In New Zealand | Nov-20 | Education | Sport | Medium | 20 years (2020-2040) (p. 1) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Statistics New Zealand | Auckland's future population under alternative migration scenarios | Jun-17 | Security | Population | Medium | 27 years (2016-2043) (p. 6) | No | No | No |
| Statistics New Zealand | Analytical retrospective superlative index based on New Zealand’s CPI: 2017 | Nov-18 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 15 years (2002-2017) (p. 4) | No | No | No |
| Statistics New Zealand | National population projections: 2020(base)–2073 | Dec-20 | Security | Population | Wide | 53 years (2020-2073) (Title) | No | No | No |
| Statistics New Zealand | Analytical retrospective superlative index based on New Zealand's CPI: 2020 | Apr-21 | Economics | Economics | Narrow | 18 years (2002-2020) (Results) | No | No | No |
| Te Puni Kōkiri | Ngā Kaihanga Hou, For Māori Future Makers | Oct-07 | Economics | Māori Futures | Narrow | 23-years (2030) (p. 9) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Te Puni Kōkiri | Māori, Science and Innovation - scenarios of potential, opportunity and value | Dec-10 | Economics | Māori Futures | Wide | 51 years (2010-2061) (p. 3) | No | No | Yes (Berl economics) |
| The Aotearoa Circle | Climate-related risk scenarios for the 2050s: Exploring plausible futures for aquaculture and fisheries in New Zealand | 2020 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Medium | 30-years (2050) (p. 12) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (KPMG) |
| The Royal Society of New Zealand | Climate change implications for New Zealand | Apr-16 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Wide | 85 years (2015-2100) (p. 20) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Tourism New Zealand | Tourism New Zealand Scenario Models**** | Dec-20 | Economics | Tourism | Medium | 4 years (2020-2024) (p. 2) | No | No | No |
| Victoria University | Tourism2050: Scenarios for New Zealand | Oct-12 | Economics | Tourism | Wide | 36-years (2050) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Westpac New Zealand Limited | Westpac NZ Climate Risk Report. | Nov-20 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Medium | 30-years (2050) (p. 3) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
Table 2: List of Aotearoa New Zealand Local government Scenarios (as at 15 December 2022) [ACTIVE]
| Entity | Scenario title # | Date Published | Topic | Sub-Topic* | Breadth* | Time Horizon | Climate-related* | Explicit/implicit | Data/guidance (entity)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashburton District Council | Supporting Land Use Adaption for a Climate Changed Future | Sep-22 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 78 years (2022-2100) (p. 56) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Auckland Council | Auckland region climate change projections and impacts | 2020 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 89-years (2040, 2090, 2110) (p. 18) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Auckland Regional Council | An Assessment of Potential Impacts of Different Growth Scenarios on Auckland's Natural Environment | Sep-17 | Infrastructure | Land use | Medium | 29 years (2017-2046) (p. iii) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Auckland Regional Council | Auckland Plan Scenario Evaluation Workstream | Sep-11 | Infrastructure | Land use | Medium | 45 years (2006 - 2051). (p. 7) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Auckland Regional Council | Aucklands Climate Plan | Dec-20 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 30 years (2020 - 2050) (p. 22) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Bay of Plenty Regional Council | Climate change projections and impacts for the Bay of Plenty Region | Oct-19 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 11) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Central Hawkes Bay District Council | Central Hawke’s Bay District Demographic and Economic Growth Projections 2020-2051 | n.d. | Economics | Population | Medium | 31 years (2020 - 2051) (p. 1) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Squillions LTD) |
| Central Hawkes Bay District Council | Facing The Facts Long Term Plan 2021-2031 | Jun-21 | Security | Population | Medium | 10 years (2021-2031) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Central Otago District Council | The Past, Present and Future Climate of Central Otago | Aug-17 | Climate Change | Climate Change | Medium | 10 years (2018 - 2028) (p.6). | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Bodeker Scientific) |
| Central Otago District Council | Infrastructure Strategy | n.d. | Infrastructure | Infrastructure | Medium | 30 years (2020-2050) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Dunedin City Council | tō tātou eke whakamurithe – the future of us | n.d. | Infrastructure | Infrastructure | Medium | 10 years (2021-2031) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Environment Canterbury | Climate change projections for the Canterbury Region | Feb-20 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 9) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Environment Southland, Gore District Council, Invercargill City Council, and Southland District Council | Southland climate change impact assessment | Aug-18 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-years (2040, 2090) (p. 9) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Far North District Council | Kāeo Wastewater Treatment Plant Hydrodynamic Modelling Study | Mar-22 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Narrow | One month (p. 2) | No | No | Yes (MetOcean) |
| Gisborne District Council and Hawke's Bay Regional Council | Climate change projections and impacts for Tairāwhiti and Hawke's Bay | Nov-20 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 14) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Greater Wellington Regional Council | Growth scenarios for the Wellington Region: Towards 2041 | Aug-14 | Economics | Innovation | Medium | 28 years (2013 - 2041). (p. 1) | No | No | Yes (Business and Economic Research Limited - BERL) |
| Greater Wellington Regional Council | Planning for Growth: Growth Scenario Engagement | Jun-19 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 30 years (2019 - 2049) (p.3) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Global Research Ltd) |
| Greater Wellington Regional Council | North Wellington Public Transport - Scenarios report | n.d. | Infrastructure | Transport | Narrow | 20 years (2007 - 2027 depending on scenario) (p. 32) | No | No | Yes (Sinclair Knight Merz - SKM) |
| Greater Wellington Regional Council | Climate change and variability - Wellington Region | Jun-17 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (pp. 13, 47) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Greater Wellington Regional Council | Wellington Region climate change extremes and implications | Dec-19 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-years (2040, 2090) (p. 15) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Horizons Regional Council | Action for healthy waterways: A discussion document on national direction for our essential freshwater | Oct-19 | Infrastructure | Water Quality | Medium | 10 years (p. 13) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Horizons Regional Council | Climate Change and Variability - Horizons Region | Sep-16 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 8) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Horizons Regional Council | Climate change implications for the Manawatū-Whanganui Region | Jun-19 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-years (2040, 2090) (p. 12) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Horizons Regional Council | The Waiopehu FMU Water Quality Model: A tool for simulating catchment nutrient management options | Aug-22 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Narrow | 13 years (2022-2035) (p. 12) | No | No | Yes (RMA science, LWP) |
| Mackenzie District Council | Mackenzie District Growth Projections - 2020 | Aug-20 | Infrastructure | Population | Medium | 30 years (2020 - 2050). (p. 6) | No | No | Yes (Rationale Limited) |
| Marlborough District Council | Climate change projections and impacts for Marlborough | Mar-21 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 9) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Napier City Council | Community Housing Options | Dec-21 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 25 years (2021-2046) (p. 23) | No | No | Yes (PwC) |
| Nelson City Council | Nelson Tasman Future Development Strategy | Sep-22 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 30 years (2022-2052) (p. 1) | Yes | Implicit | No |
| Nelson-Tasman district council | Nelson-Tasman FDS | Jun-19 | Infrastructure | Housing | Medium | 30 years (2018 - 2048). (p.3) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Hill Young Cooper Limited and Resource Management Group Limited) |
| New Plymouth District Council | 2021-2031 Water Supply Asset Management Plan | n.d. | Infrastructure | Water quality | Medium | 10 years (2021-2031) (p. 28) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| New Plymouth District Council, the Taranaki Regional Council and South Taranaki District Council | Climate Trends, Hazards and Extremes – Taranaki | Oct-08 | Climate Change | Climate-related risk | Medium | 82 years (2008-2090) (p. vi) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Northland Regional Council | Climate Change Projections and Implications for Northland | Sep-16 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 13) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Opotiki District Council | Opotiki Harbour Development Social and Economic Evaluation | Jun-05 | Economics | Land use | Medium | 21 years (2009 - 2030) (p. 36) | No | No | Yes (URS Australia Pty Ltd) |
| Otago Regional Council | Climate change projections for the Otago Region | Oct-19 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 8) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Otago Regional Council | Dart / Rees Rivers Flood Hazard Modelling | Jun-22 | Infrastructure | Climate-related risk | Narrow | 100 years (2022-2122) (pp. 24, 27) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (LandRiverSea) |
| Ruapehu District Council | Long Term Plan 2021-2031 | Jun-21 | Economics | Economics | Medium | 10 years (2021 - 2031) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| South Waikato District Council | Stormwater Asset Management Plan | Aug-22 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Medium | 10 years (2021-2031) (p. 1) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Tasman District Council | Climate Change and Variability - Tasman District | Aug-15 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-, 84-years (2040, 2090, 2100) (p. 7) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Tasman District Council | Climate change projections for Tasman and impacts on agricultural systems | Oct-19 | Climate Change | Adaptation | Medium | 34-, 74-years (2040, 2090) (p. 7) | Yes | Explicit | Yes (NIWA) |
| Thames-Coromandel District Council | 2021-2031 Long Term Plan | Jun-21 | Economics | Economics | Medium | 10 years (2021 - 2031) | Yes | Explicit | No |
| Waipa District Council | Waipa District Growth Strategy | Jun-09 | Economics | Population | Medium | 41 years (2009 - 2050) (p.4) | Yes | Implicit | Yes (Beca Group) |
| Waikato Regional Council | WISE: Waikato Integrated Scenario Explorer | Feb-22 | Economics | Economics | Medium | 10 years (2021-2031) p. 17 | Yes | Explicit | Yes (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, NIDEA, NIWA, RIKS, Market Economics Ltd, Alchemists Ltd and CLIMsystems Ltd) |
| Waitaki District Council | Ōamaru Weston & Kakanui Spatial Plan | May-22 | Economics | Land use | Narrow | 30 years (2022-2052) p. 8 | Yes | Implicit | Yes (B&A) |
| West Coast Regional Council | Buller River: Flood Mitigation Options Assessment | Jun-22 | Climate Change | Mitigation | Narrow | Multiple p. 5 | Yes | Implicit | Yes (LandRiverSea) |
| Western Bay of Plenty District Council | Te Puke Stormwater Modelling Report | Aug-22 | Infrastructure | Water quality | Narrow | 108 years (2022-2130) p. 30 | Yes | Implicit | Yes (DHI) |
Table 3: List of references for climate change scenarios (as at 15 December 2022) [ACTIVE]
| Author | Title | Date | Synopsis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) | Global Scenarios 2035: Exploring Implications for the Future of Global Collaboration and the OECD | 20 May 2021 | This report ‘uses a strategic foresight approach to inform reflection on how best to prepare the OECD to meet the needs of a highly unpredictable future. It was developed by the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit to demonstrate how navigating the future of global collaboration and the Organisation’s role within it will require ongoing exploration and dialogue about what may be possible, and desirable, in the future.’ |
| Royal Dutch Shell | Shell Scenarios Sky: Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement | n.d. | This is ‘an ambitious scenario to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C’. It is a well thought out and executed scenario developed by one of the largest petroleum companies in the world. |
| Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) | Climate scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them | December 2008 | This report ‘provides some overviews on the roles of climate scenarios in adaptation planning and what should be considered in using and generating climate scenarios, in a frequently ask questions style. Specifically, this book tries to answer questions commonly addressed by non-climatologists when they want to address climate scenario in adaptation plans.’ |
| National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) | Climate change scenarios for New Zealand | n.d. | This webpage offers a range of material regarding climate change scenarios from an Aotearoa New Zealand based perspective. The material is based on the RCP scenarios (similar to our TCFD exercise) from the IPCC’s 5th Assessment report. |
| McGuinness Institute | Report 6: Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 | December 2008 | This report uses the issues of climate change and genetic modification to explore four scenarios based on whether or not the world manages itself well and whether or not Aotearoa New Zealand manages itself well. These four scenarios illustrate why small countries have such a vested interest in international affairs. |
| McGuinness Institute | TCFD 'Strategy' Exercise | October 2019 | This exercise was developed by the Institute to use during the TCFD workshops we ran in 2019. The detailed exploration of Core Element 2 (Strategy) was supported by this exercise, where attendees explored a variety of scenarios based on climate change models of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. In the second part of the exercise, attendees practiced testing existing climate change and business strategies of Aotearoa New Zealand organisations against each of the scenarios and then making corresponding TCFD disclosures. |
| Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) | Technical Supplement: The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities | June 2017 | This report assists ‘organizations in using climate-related scenario analysis to support the development of disclosures consistent with the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures’ |
| Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) | Guide to climate scenario analysis: for central banks and supervisors | June 2020 | This guide ‘provides practical advice on using scenario analysis to assess climate risks to the economy and financial system. It is based on the initial experiences of NGFS members and observers, and also aims to progress discussion on the methodologies used. While mainly aimed at central banks and supervisors, many aspects of the Guide might also prove informative to the wider community’. |
| United Nations Principles of Responsible Investment | Climate scenario analysis | n.d. | This webpage contains a list of climate scenario tools that ‘make it easier for investors to implement a key recommendation of the TCFD – scenario planning’. |
| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis | 2021 | This report ‘addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations’. |
| Anderson, B., et al. | Modelled response of debris-covered and lake-calving glaciers to climate change, Kā Tiritiri o te Moana/Southern Alps, New Zealand | 6 August 2021 | This paper uses a glacier model, and future climate scenarios from 6 different climate models to investigate how glaciers might change in the future in the Aoraki/Mt. Cook region (where ~54% of New Zealand glacier ice is). RCP 2.6 suggests that by 2099, 50% of ice will be lost relative to 2005. RCP 8.5 suggests that by 2099, 92% of ice will be lost relative to 2005. |
| UK Climate Resilence Programme | Products of the UK-SSPS Project | November 2021 | This webpage gives an overview of the various products of the UK-SSPS project. Including: UK-SSP narratives & systems diagrams, semi-quantitative trends, quantified projections, interface for exploring and accessing UK-SSP products, and other relevant publications. |
| Frame, B., et al | Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios | 26 May 2018 | This report explains how ‘socio-economic scenarios enable us to understand the extent to which global-, national- and local-scale societal developments can influence the nature and severity of climate change risks and response options’. |
| Cradock-Henry, N. A., et al | Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios | 8 August 2018 | This report observes how parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The authors discuss ‘the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders’. |
| NZ SeaRise | Te tai pari o Aotearoa - Future sea level rise around New Zealand's dynamic coastline | 19 January 2021 | The article was written for a ‘general’ audience and offers an example of the type of information we aim to produce for all of the coastline around Aotearoa. |
| Ørsted | Ørsted: 5 key things we learned from TCFD implementation and scenario analysis | n.d. | This webpage 'highlights the initial approach use[d] to implement the TCFD recommendations, and includes 5 key insights from Ørsted’s experience.' |
| Pielke, R. JR., & Ritchie, J. | How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality | 2021 | This article explains how '[t]he emissions scenarios of today’s climate science are delivering distorted pictures that compromise both understanding and well-informed policymaking.' Until the problem surrounding scientific integrity is addressed, solutions for mitigating climate change will be compromised. |
| Januta, A. | Explainer: The U.N. climate report's five futures - decoded | 9 August 2021 | This webpage gives a brief explanation of each of the 5 possible climate change scenarios for the future, released in the U.N climate panel report. |