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Foresightnz

Foresight tools

We are currently developing a set of foresight tools cards, which showcase a number of well-known foresight tools.

The aim of this project is to share a number of common foresight tools in an easily accessible manner. Foresight practitioners look for ways to reduce uncertainty and by doing so, provide more clarity over what the future may hold. Just like a gold digger who continues to try to find a vein of gold, practitioners continue to work away at a problem or issue, using a wide range of mechanisms to seek out data, information or knowledge or to make sense of any obvious nuances and interconnections. Foresight practitioners often combine or undertake a sequential series of tools in the form of exercises to explore a particular issue or problem. See for example, a workshop exercise, that uses three of the tools mentioned below.

Foresight tools have been designed by academics and practitioners to answer one of three questions:

    • How can I gain access to timely, useful and relevant data, information and/or knowledge about the future?

      Scanning

    • How can I use that data, information and/or knowledge to test assumptions, identify gaps and explain relationships?

      Mapping

    • How can I apply scanning and mapping to help identify triggers, explore possible impacts, manage risks, forward engage with tricky issues, write playbooks/plans to manage possible challenges and opportunities, and most importantly, tell stories about a diverse range of possible futures?

      Scenario development

    The Institute hopes this initiative contributes to a deeper discussion about the future, not just about the insights gained from using a particular tool or a range of tools, but ideally a critical assessment of the foresight tools themselves.

    The criteria that shaped the selection of these tools are as follows:

    • simple to understand and use in a workshop situation
    • flexible to apply to a range of problems or issues
    • have a visual element that conveys the concept
    • frequently applied by practitioners around the world

    Resources

    NameAuthorRelevant toolTool used forTopics
    Survey Insights: An analysis of the 2021 Long-term Insights Briefings Survey (2021)McGuinness InstituteScanning, Mapping, Scenario DevelopmentLTIBs
    Strategic Risk and Crisis Management: A handbook for modelling and managing complex risksDavid RubensScanning, Mapping, Scenario Development
    Building Strategic Foresight and Anticipatory Capacity and Knowledge in GovernmentOECD Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI)Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development
    Foresight Manual: Empowered Futures for the 2030 AgendaGlobal Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE)Scanning, Mapping, Scenario Development
    40 Years of Shell ScenariosRoyal Dutch ShellScenarios by the NumbersScenario
    Causal Layered Analysis A Four-Level Approach to Alternative FuturesSohail InayatullahFutures TriangleMapping
    The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableNicholas TalebAnimal MetaphorsMappingBlack Swan
    StrategyNZ: Understanding paradox through strategic foresightPeter BishopSTEEP+CMapping
    The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We IgnoreMichele WuckerAnimal MetaphorsMappingGray Rhino
    Six pillars: Futures thinking for transformingSohail InayatullahFutures TriangleMapping
    New Zealand's National RisksDepartment of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC)Scanning
    Our first Long-Term Insights BriefingsAndrew JacksonLTIBs
    The Futures WheelJerome C. GlennFutures WheelMapping
    Benefits of Scenario Planning Applied to Energy DevelopmentBarry Benedict
    There are known unknowns
    [see PDF]
    Donald RumsfeldAnimal MetaphorsMapping
    The Inquisitive Man
    [see PDF]
    Ivan KrylovAnimal MetaphorsMappingBlack Elephant
    Icons of Futures ThinkingInsight & ForesightScanning, Mapping, Scenario Development
    Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as methodSohail InayatullahCausal Layered AnalysisMapping
    Three HorizonsInternational Futures ForumThree HorizonsMapping