Research Projects

Pandemic NZ

Learning lessons now for the future

Pandemic NZ is a McGuinness Institute project that aims to help New Zealand prepare for future pandemics, as well as manage and learn from the current COVID-19 pandemic. It draws together early Institute publications as well as an increasingly comprehensive suite of research and publications into the current pandemic. See below for tables of publications and independent reports on pandemics.

Pandemics are not uncommon. The COVID-19 pandemic is the fifth global pandemic in just over a century. Previous pandemics began in 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009. When looking back over time, pandemics can be seen as part of the normal cycle of events: what the McGuinness Institute calls ‘The Long Normal’. Pandemics tend to be categorised as mild, moderate or severe. COVID-19 is a moderate pandemic.

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was first notified about multiple cases of pneumonia from an unknown cause, circulating in Wuhan, China. On 11 January 2020, the first known death was confirmed. Nine days later, Thailand became the second country to record its first case of the coronavirus and, shortly afterwards, cases were recorded in Japan, South Korea and the United States. By 30 January 2020, over 10,000 cases had been reported globally and WHO declared a global health emergency. On 11 February 2020, WHO officially titled the coronavirus disease COVID-19. By 11 March 2020, there were over 118,000 recorded cases across 114 countries and WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

Find PandemicNZ publications

Latest publication

COVID-19 Nation Dates: A timeline of significant events in Aotearoa New Zealand’s COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 Nation Dates presents a timeline of significant events that have shaped the COVID-19 pandemic in Aotearoa New Zealand.

We have endeavoured to create a comprehensive list of events; however, we may still have missed some events. We intend to publish a second edition in twelve months‘ time once other changes become apparent. For this reason, we welcome your feedback and suggestions.

The Institute is currently in the process of preparing a second edition of COVID-19 Nation Dates. The second edition will build on the existing events as well as new events from 23 January 2020 to 31 March 2024.

For bulk orders of the 2nd edition (due June 2024) and bookseller information, please email us.

Lists of government and other relevant pandemic publications

Table 1: MOH pandemic publications
This table is a list of Ministry of Health (MOH) pandemic publications on the MOH website since 2010.

Table 2: Independent reviews on the Government’s response to COVID-19
This table is a list of reports prepared by independent individuals or bodies.

Note:
* Titles marked with an asterisk indicate the report has been super-ceded and the report is now out of date.
# Titles marked with a hashtag indicate a soft copy of the report cannot be found.

Themes
The events have been grouped by themes. The themes are as follows:

Aged residential care
Alert level
Border control [Note: the Trans-Tasman bubble and Pacific bubble are treated as separate themes]
Community outbreak
COVID-19 origins
Elimination
Financial support [Note: this includes the Wage Subsidy Scheme]
Governance
Health care services
Māori
Mental health
National reserve supply [Note: this includes the composition]
Pacific bubble
PPE
Surveillance [Note: refers to MOH’s review of the characteristics of the disease and the effectiveness of the response]
Testing [Note: includes PCR and RAT testing]
Track and tracing
Trans-Tasman bubble
Vaccination
Traffic light system

Table 1: MOH pandemic publications

Date	Theme	Title
2022/02	Variant updates	COVID-19 Omicron Update (updated 22 February 2022)
2022/02	Variant updates	COVID-19 Omicron Update (updated 3 February 2022)
2021/12	Māori	COVID-19 Māori Health Protection Plan
2021/11	Track and tracing	Contact Tracing QR Code and NFC Tag Specification
2021/09	Vaccination	No evidence that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with increased risk of miscarriage
2021/08	NRS Composition	Composition of the national reserve supply (updated 13 August 2021 – the third update since January 2020)
2021/08	Variant updates	Summary of key information from recent weekly Variants of Concern updates
2021/07	Variant updates	Increased transmission of Delta variant: higher viral load and shorter incubation period
2021/07	Treatment	Pharmaceutical treatments (therapeutics) for COVID-19 - current evidence and uncertainties
2021/07	Variant updates	Fleeting contact and the Delta and Kappa variants
2021/06	Vaccination	Early evidence for the effectiveness of a third dose among immunocompromised
2021/05	Variant updates	Shifting thinking on aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2
2021/05	Vaccination	COVID-19 vaccines and their effect on viral transmission
2021/04	Vaccination	Monitoring vaccine safety
2021/04	Vaccination	Estimated volumes and timing of vaccine rollout
2021/04	Vaccination	Vaccine side effects and reactions
2021/04	Testing	Border Workforce Testing Register
2021/03	Māori	COVID-19 Māori Vaccine and Immunisation Plan
2021/03	Vaccination	About vaccines: Efficacy, effectiveness, transmission and immunity
2021/01	Surveillance	Aotearoa New Zealand’s COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy
2021/01	Testing	Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 Testing Plan
2020/12	Testing	COVID-19 Assessment and Testing Data Standard
2020/12	Aged Residential Care	New Zealand Aotearoa Pandemic Response Policy for Aged Residential Care
2020/12	Mental Health	Kia Kaha, Kia Māia, Kia Ora Aotearoa: COVID-19 Psychosocial and Mental Wellbeing Plan (Revised) Summary of Feedback Kia Kaha, Kia Māia, Kia Ora Aotearoa: COVID-19 Psychosocial and Mental Wellbeing Recovery Plan (2020/09)
2020/11	PPE	Personal protective equipment use for non-health workers
2020/11	PPE	Further guidance on N95 masks for MIQ workers
2020/11	Health Care Services	COVID-19 disruptions to hospital and general practice activity
2020/10	Health Care Services	COVID-19 in Health Care and Support Workers in Aotearoa New Zealand
2020/09	Vaccination	Immunisation Handbook 2020
2020/09	PPE	PPE Guidelines for Known COVID-19 Cases
2020/09	Testing	COVID-19 Messaging Implementation Guide
2020/09	NRS Composition and Risk Management	Composition of the national reserve supply
2020/08	NRS Composition*	Composition of the national reserve supply (updated 26/08/2020)
2020/07	Māori	Updated COVID-19 Māori Health Response Plan
2020/06	Testing*	Mid-Term National Testing Strategy: COVID-19 Testing
2020/06	Testing*	New Zealand's national testing strategy for COVID-19 for June to August 2020
2020/06	Health Care Services	Guidance for the rehabilitation of people with or recovering from COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand
2020/05	Elimination	COVID-19: Elimination strategy for Aotearoa New Zealand
2020/05	Surveillance*	New Zealand’s COVID-19 Surveillance Plan
2020/05	Mental Health*	Kia Kaha, Kia Māia, Kia Ora Aotearoa: Psychosocial and Mental Wellbeing Plan
2020/05	Track and tracing	COVID-19 Contact Tracing Data Standard
2020/04	Health Care Services	COVID-19 Health and Disability System Response Plan
2020/04	Māori*	Initial COVID-19 Māori Response Action Plan
2020/01	NRS Composition*	Composition of the national reserve supply (updated 28/01/2020)
2017/08	General Plan	New Zealand Influenza Pandemic Plan
2017/06	NRS Composition*	Composition of the national reserve supply (updated 20/06/2017)
2013/12	National Reserve Supply	National Health Emergency Plan: National Reserve Supplies Management and Usage Policies, 3rd edition
2013/12	Vaccination	National Health Emergency Plan H5N1 Pre-Pandemic Vaccine Usage Policy

Table 2: Independent reviews on the Government's response to COVID-19

Date	Theme	Title
2021/10	Governance	COVID 19 Public Health Advisory Group feedback letter from Sir David Skegg
2021/09	Community outbreak	Letter from Sir Brian Roche to Minister Hipkins
2021/09	Community outbreak	Observations from the Recent Delta Outbreak and their Impact on Reconnecting New Zealanders
2021/08	Border control	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group Minutes
2021/08	Governance	Joint DPMC/MOH response letter to the COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group
2021/08	Border control	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group - Forward Work Programme
2021/07	Governance	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group Minutes
2021/07	Trans-Tasman bubble	Letter from Sir Brian Roche to Minister Hipkins re feedback on Quarantine Free Travel briefing
2021/07	Border control	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group Minutes
2021/07	Governance	Minister’s letter to Chief Executives
2021/06	Community outbreak	Review of the Auckland February 2021 COVID-19 Outbreak and New Zealand’s current COVID-19 Outbreak Response Capability
2021/06	Community outbreak	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group Minutes
2021/06	Governance	Letter from Sir Brian Roche to Minister Hipkins
2021/06	Governance	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group Minutes
2021/06	Community outbreak	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group: Rapid Review of Auckland February 2021 Outbreak and Future Work Programme (SWC-21-MIN-0103)
2021/06	Community outbreak	COVID-19 System response to recommendations from the review report into the February 2021 Auckland Outbreak
2021/06	Elimination	Future of the Elimination Strategy — Strategic COVID-19 Public Health Advisory Group's advice to Minister Verrall
2021/05	Border control	Further Advice of Risk Mitigation Measures for Very High Risk Countries - Letter from Strategic COVID-19 Public Health Advisory Group
2021/05	Community outbreak	Letter from Sir Brian Roche to Minister Hipkins
2021/04	Surveillance & Testing	Progress against the review of surveillance, testing and contact tracing
2021/04	Surveillance	COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group (CICRIAG): Feedback on MOH Papers
2021/04	Community outbreak	Meeting with the COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group
2021/03	Governance	Ministerial Advisory Group: COVID-19 Independent Continuous Review, Improvement and Advice Group (CAB-21-MIN-0055)
2021/[N/A]	Governance	Table of responses to the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) and CICRIAG
2020/12	Vaccination	More than just a jab: Evaluation of the Māori Influenza vaccination programme as part of the COVID-19 Māori health response
2020/10	Governance	Second rapid review of the COVID-19 all-of-government response
2020/09	Surveillance & Testing	Report of Advisory Committee to Oversee the Implementation of the New Zealand COVID-19 Surveillance Plan and Testing Strategy
2020/06	Border control	Managed isolation and quarantine review
2020/06	Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)	Management of personal protective equipment in response to Covid-19
2020/05	Aged Residential Care	Independent Review of COVID-19 Clusters in Aged Residential Care Facilities
2020/04	Governance	Rapid Review of Initial Operating Model and Organisational Arrangements for the National Response to COVID-19
2019	Governance	Joint External Evaluation of IHR Core Capacities of New Zealand: Mission Report: 26–30 November 2018

Assorted publications

See a selection of our latest research and publications related to PandemicNZ below.

View all

A Suppression Strategy: Living with COVID-19 in the Year 2022 (Version 7)

Discussion Paper 2021/03 – A COVID-19 Situational Report: Beyond Aotearoa New Zealand’s Fortress as at 1 September 2021

Think Piece 37 – The gap between doses matters!

Working Paper 2020/12 – An analysis of the responses to the ‘Open Letter to District Health Boards (dated 25 March 2020)’

Strategy

There are a wide range of variables that New Zealand needs to consider and seek to understand. This section contains our thinking and some probes through social media to understand what other people are thinking. As things are changing over time, we have provided a brief timeline to show the context of the publications below.

Unlocking Strategy: the COVID-19 dilemma

Country graphs: Mapping the COVID-19 curves

Cover of Think Piece 34 featuring binoculars looking at a living room

Worksheet 2020/01: COVID-19 Exploring certainties and uncertainties

COVID-19 Phase 1: Instagram poll results

Unlocking Strategy: the COVID-19 dilemma

Past initiatives

SupplyNZ

In March 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the McGuinness Institute created SupplyNZ: Winning the war against COVID-19. While hopeful that New Zealand’s lockdown strategy would work, we felt it was important to build New Zealand’s connections and capabilities in case the nationwide lockdown was not enough to stop the spread of the virus, and resulted in gaps in supply chains.

We welcome makers, purchasers and suppliers of healthcare products as well as organisations or individuals with production capabilities (e.g. raw materials, bulk fabric or 3-D printing) and/or time to fill out the registration form to be placed on the SupplyNZ Register.