PandemicNZ

PandemicNZ is a research project that aims to build capability, resources and resilience for the next pandemic.

The project aims to help New Zealand prepare for future pandemics, by identifying key lessons before they are lost and forgotten. It draws together early Institute publications as well as an increasingly comprehensive suite of research into and publications on the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Pandemics are not uncommon; they are frequent enough to cause major damage while being irregular enough for knowledge not to be passed down through generations. The recent COVID-19 pandemic is the fifth global pandemic in just over a century. Previous pandemics began in 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009. Improving New Zealand’s pandemic preparedness has been a key goal of the Institute since 2005. The occurrence and impact of future pandemics is likely to increase across the world due to climate change and land use changes. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in preparedness, both in terms of the health system and supply chains. We must strengthen our capabilities and preparedness so that we are ready for future pandemics.

PandemicNZ aims to contribute to discussions on ways to increase pandemic preparedness. We have the unique opportunity to learn from the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying key lessons that will be beneficial in the long term. It is essential that we review what New Zealand did well, and what can be done to improve our capabilities and preparedness in the future.

Interconnecting research projects

PandemicNZ is closely aligned with the Institute’s ForesightNZ research project.

More detail

Analysing New Zealand’s response to COVID-19 (ongoing)
Research for PandemicNZ revolves around several Institute publications, as well as a number of government and other independent reviews of the Government’s response (see tables of publications and independent reports below).

By critically reviewing the events of the COVID-19 pandemic alongside independent reviews both within New Zealand and internationally, the Institute hopes to identify and share these key lessons to ensure that New Zealand, and the world, are better prepared for the next pandemic. In 2024, the Institute produced a submission to the NZ Royal Commission COVID-19 Lessons Learned | Te Tira Ārai Urutā: Phase One to the Royal Commission of Inquiry. This was followed up in 2025 by another submission to the NZ Royal Commission COVID-19 Lessons Learned | Te Tira Ārai Urutā: Phase Two. These two submissions will be published on the Institute’s table of submissions once they are publicly available.

Upcoming McGuinness Institute Publications

In June 2026, we will publish three books, presented as a series (see placeholder covers below). Although each explores a distinct theme in our nation’s past, they are united by their shared focus on New Zealand history.

• Nation Dates Timelines of significant events that have shaped the history of Aotearoa New Zealand (sixth edition): Focuses on significant events that shaped Aotearoa New Zealand from 1769.
• COVID-19 Nation Dates: A New Zealand timeline of significant events during the COVID-19 pandemic (third edition): Chronicles the history of COVID-19 in New Zealand with a view to showcasing lessons for future pandemics.
• Nation Voices: New Zealand’s Premiers and Prime Ministers in Their Own Words (first edition): Explores leadership under pressure as premiers and prime ministers face the challenges and embrace the opportunities of their time in office.

Pandemic Playbook – Making Decisions During a Pandemic (WIP)

The Pandemic Playbook is designed to assist decision makers in identifying, evaluating, and implementing informed choices both prior to and during a pandemic. Its purpose is to enable policymakers and stakeholders to adopt a long-term perspective on the types of decisions and capabilities that will be essential for planning and executing New Zealand’s response to future pandemics. The Playbook employs a threat‑agnostic framework, meaning it is structured to address any form of infectious disease outbreak rather than being tailored to a single pathogen. It is described as a ‘playbook’ because, similar to those used in sport or business, it provides a set of predefined, high‑level strategic options that can be elaborated, reviewed, and adapted over time. Each high‑level strategy can be understood as setting the overall direction of travel, while a coordinated, informed, and detailed response is achieved through the application of predefined policy levers. The playbook is designed in such a way to enable decision makers to adjust actions to diverse circumstances, ensuring consistency, enhancing transparency, and reinforcing preparedness under pressure, often when faced with limited or uncertain information.

Discussion Paper 2025/04 – The COVID-19 Shadow: An independent review five years on (2025)

This paper will be published after the Royal Commission Phase 2 report is released.

Discussion Paper 2025/03 – Time to Prepare: Lessons from the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy (final draft, 2025)

This discussion paper explores the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme, the decisions that led to its creation, and the resulting outcomes. The impacts of COVID-19 presented major challenges for New Zealand’s economy, and the subsequent attempt at recovery. The Wage Subsidy Scheme was the largest single item of expenditure during the COVID-19 response, covering 72% of employing firms and 59% of total employment at its peak.

This report is published as a final draft as we are waiting for responses to requests under the Official Information Act 1982.

Unlocking Strategy: the COVID-19 dilemma

Country graphs: Mapping the COVID-19 curves

Worksheet 2020/01: COVID-19 Exploring certainties and uncertainties

Table 1: MOH pandemic publications
This table is a list of Ministry of Health (MOH) pandemic publications on the MOH website since 2010.

Table 2: Independent reviews on the Government’s response to COVID-19
This table is a list of reports prepared by independent individuals or bodies.

Note:
* Titles marked with an asterisk indicate the report has been super-ceded and the report is now out of date.
# Titles marked with a hashtag indicate a soft copy of the report cannot be found.