Policy Projects
Foresight NZ
Exploring New Zealand’s probable and possible futures
ForesightNZ is a McGuinness Institute policy project that aims to explore New Zealand’s probable, possible and preferred futures.
Our intention is to build public policy capability in New Zealand by encouraging long-term, agile thinking around our uncertain future. Initiated in 2008, ForesightNZ is about conceptualising the broad range of possible futures for New Zealand through up-to-date tools and approaches used in the field of futures studies. Foresight tools often applied by the Institute include the Cone of Plausibility, scenario development and backcasting.
Latest publication
Working Paper 2023/01 – List of publicly available national and local scenarios
Visit Working papers
In times of uncertainty it can be difficult to imagine what might happen in the future. Scenarios can be used as a tool for visualising or simulating possible future outcomes.
This working paper identifies as many scenario documents as the Institute could find, and in doing so, aims to enable better understanding of the current state of institutional capacity and capability regarding scenario development. The process of identifying a range of scenarios has enabled a holistic overview of the state of scenario development across multiple types of organisations in Aotearoa New Zealand.
Current work
Scenarios
In times of uncertainty it can be difficult to imagine what might happen in the future. Scenarios development is a foresight tool that can be used to visualise or simulate possible future outcomes.
In the Institute’s view, there are many ways to produce scenarios. Some key questions are:
- What is the problem/area you are trying to scope?
- What type of futures are you trying to explore – probable, plausible, possible, and/or preposterous futures? The type of scenarios that are developed depends upon the nature of the problem, and the subject area or domain being explored.
Across all data, observations indicate that the scenario landscape (both at a national and local level) is fragmented, complex and inconsistent. The Institute is currently undergoing research to learn more about the current state of domestic scenario development and has developed a list of scenario documents in Aotearoa New Zealand.
Recent initiatives
Revisiting Tomorrow: Navigating with Foresight
How to begin the hugely complex task of thinking about the future? – Margaret Hunn, Commission for the Future, 1981
On 30 October 2019, McGuinness Institute hosted a panel discussion between Rt Hon Jim Bolger and former members of the Commission for the Future and the New Zealand Planning Council, followed by reflections from several future thinkers on how we might embed foresight into public policy in 2020 and beyond. Learn more about the event and speakers.
Assorted publications
See a selection of our latest research and publications related to ForesightNZ below.
Foresight tools
Discussion Paper 2023/02 – Establishing national climate-related reference scenarios
Prime Minister’s summer reading list 2023/24
Discussion Paper 2023/01 – BIG Ideas: Brief to the Incoming Government (B.I.G.)